Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: European hopefuls to claim vital home victory

Back-to-back defeats have dented Osasuna’s European ambitions, but Alessio Lisci’s side are still in the hunt to qualify for next season’s UEFA Europa League or UEFA Conference League, especially if they beat Atletico Madrid, who are already assured of a spot in the UEFA Champions League, at the Estadio El Sadar on Tuesday (20:30 BST, Premier Sports 1).

Below are my Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid predictions, together with the latest team news and match odds ahead of this meeting in Pamplona.

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Team News

Osasuna goalkeeper Sergio Herrera, an ever-present in this season’s La Liga up until his 45th-minute dismissal for handling the ball outside his penalty area in last Friday’s 3-2 loss at Levante, will serve a one-game suspension on Tuesday, with Aitor Fernandez set to deputise in net.

Victor Munoz has missed Osasuna’s last two games with a calf injury and is expected to sit out a third consecutive match due to that ailment.

Football Odds

Julian Alvarez, Jose Maria Gimenez, Johnny Cardoso (all ankle), Pablo Barrios, Nicolas Gonzalez, Nahuel Molina (all muscle) and Giuliano Simeone (hip) are likely all out injured for Atletico Madrid, who will also be without the suspended Alex Baena after the 24-year-old picked up his fifth yellow card of the league campaign in last Saturday’s 1-0 home defeat to Celta Vigo.

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Osasuna, who won last season’s corresponding fixture, also in the 36th round, 2-0 in May 2025, are slight underdogs to triumph on Tuesday, with odds of 7/5 implying a 41.7% probability of success.

Atletico Madrid, who secured a 1-0 victory at the Metropolitano Stadium in October’s reverse meeting, are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, with a first draw between the two teams since August 2011 offered at 5/2.

Betfred have boosted Both Teams to Score, Alexander Sorloth 1+ Shots on Target, Ademola Lookman 1+ Shots on Target & Ante Budimir 1+ Shots on Target to 3/1 (was 5/2).

Match Result - Osasuna @ 7/5

Osasuna may be 21 points behind Atletico in the La Liga table, but their favourites tag for Tuesday's match is justified, in my opinion, and the odds are just about high enough to get me interested.

Los Rojillos are aiming to play in European competition for the first time since the 2006/07 season, when they reached the semi-finals of the old UEFA Cup, which is now the Europa League.

Osasuna qualified for the 2023/24 Europa Conference League but were barred from participating because of a decade-old match-fixing scandal.

So, they'll be hugely motivated to enter a European competition next season, and after back-to-back defeats, Atletico, who have already qualified for the Champions League and only have an outside chance of overtaking Villarreal in third, represent ideal opposition.

Today's Football Fixtures

Diego Simeone's side have lost back-to-back games 1-0, going down by that scoreline at Arsenal in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final tie, which they lost 2-1 on aggregate, before suffering another defeat at home to Celta Vigo in La Liga.

Los Rojiblancos have lost five of their last seven league games (W2), including three of their last four on the road, and Osasuna, who were 10 matches unbeaten on home soil (W6, D4) before losing 2-1 to champions-in-waiting Barcelona earlier this month, can take advantage of their injury-ravaged visitors.

Bet Builder - Ruben Garcia (OSA) 1+ Shots on Target & Marcos Llorente (ATM) 2+ Tackles @ 9/5

Osasuna attacker Ruben Garcia has only scored twice in 32 La Liga appearances (26 starts) this season, and his last goal was in a 1-1 draw with Athletic Club on 3 January.

However, the 32-year-old has hit the target in each of his last two games, forcing FC Barcelona's Joan Garcia and Levante's Maty Ryan into making saves from long-distance shots.

Atletico's Swiss Army knife Marcos Llorente, meanwhile, is averaging 1.9 tackles per game in this season's La Liga.

Last Saturday, against Celta, he recorded four tackles, and in his side's last away trip in the league, the 3-2 loss to Real Madrid on 22 March, he registered five.

Furthermore, in October's reverse fixture with Osasuna, the 31-year-old made four tackles.