Wales vs Italy Prediction: Azzurri to leave hosts feeling blue

Wales conclude their Six Nations campaign at the Principality Stadium on Saturday with a visit from an Italy side fresh off beating England in Rome.

A 27-17 defeat to Ireland last weekend extended Wales' losing run in the championship to 15 matches, and they must win by 50 points and hope France do the same against Steve Borthwick's outfit to avoid finishing with a third straight wooden spoon. Read on for my Wales vs Italy predictions, along with all the key team news and match context ahead of the finale in Cardiff.

Team News

Steve Tandy has named an unchanged starting XV for the first time in his nine‑match tenure, a sign of the cohesion and consistency he believes is emerging despite the results.

No.8 Aaron Wainwright has been passed fit after a leg issue, while fly‑half Sam Costelow remains sidelined with an ankle injury.

The only alteration to the match‑day 23 sees Scarlets back Blair Murray come onto the bench in place of Louie Hennessey, who made his debut in Dublin last week.

Italy, a week on from their historic 23-18 home win over England, make three changes.

Alessandro Fusco starts at scrum‑half, tight‑head Muhamed Hasa comes in to the front row, and Federico Ruzza returns to the second row. Welsh‑speaking Exeter scrum‑half Stephen Varney has been named on the bench.

Wales vs Italy Odds

Italy are priced at 4/7 to take the spoils in Cardiff, while Wales are 6/4 outsiders to end their 15-match winless drought in the Six Nations and the draw is available at 18/1.

The Azzurri are 5/6 to win by more than four points, with Wales 20/21 to avoid defeat by that margin.

Italy Win by 1-12 Points Inclusive @ 17/10

Tandy's side can take encouragement from their Dublin display, but only their best performance will be good enough to avoid another defeat.

Their last home Six Nations victory came four years ago, while they have not beaten Italy in Cardiff since 2020.

The Azzurri arrive in Cardiff with confidence after a stunning first-ever win over England

Gonzalo Quesada's side, who also beat Scotland at home and claimed a losing bonus point in Dublin, are a growing force again.

Italy remain as physical as ever, but their defence and discipline are much improved and they have demonstrated remarkable composure in tight moments.

The Azzurri have kept Scotland, Ireland and France to their lowest points tallies of the competition and their margin of defeat to the table-topping French was half of what it was when they met in Rome a year ago.

Italy have won three of their last four matches against Wales with increasing margins of one, three and seven points.

They are a better side than in last year's 22-15 win at the Olimpico, but so are Wales and they should be able to keep this within a 12-point margin of defeat.

Between 41 and 50 Points Inclusive @ 12/5

Neither side has been prolific in attack. Wales have averaged just 15 points per game, while Italy's strength lies in their defensive structure and breakdown pressure.

With both teams likely to lean on territory, kicking and set‑piece control, this could be a cagey, attritional contest rather than a free‑flowing finale.

Two of the last four meetings have produced between 41 and 50 points and recent scores suggest this could be another tight, low‑scoring affair in Cardiff.

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