Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers Prediction: Cooper too classy for Cas

Rampant Leeds Rhinos return to AMT Headingley on Sunday afternoon fresh from their stunning demolition of Betfred Super League champions Hull KR in Las Vegas. But will there be any hangover as West Yorkshire rivals Castleford Tigers come to town? (15:00 GMT, Sky Sports+).

The Tigers thrashed Huddersfield last week for their first win at the third time of asking, a welcome confidence boost ahead of the daunting trip to Leeds. Read on for my Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers prediction, as well as Betfred's match odds and the latest team news.

Team News

Leeds return from Las Vegas in scintillating form, and their main obstacle this week would appear to be fatigue. No disrespect to Castleford of course, since they produced their best performance of the season last week to beat Huddersfield, but if the Rhinos produce anything like what they showcased in the States then this is going to be a tough weekend for the Tigers.

Leeds boss Brad Arthur makes three changes this week and they are noteworthy. Half-back Brodie Croft produced one of his finest displays in the Blue and Amber with two tries in Vegas but the former Man of Steel misses out this week with a hamstring injury. Also dropping out are youngsters Ben Littlewood and Tom Nicholson-Watton.

England prop Mikolaj Oledzki is named in the squad having not played last week, but it remains to be seen whether he is fit to return. Arthur says he is close.

Ned McCormack is also recalled, while Croft's place is taken by new signing Jack Bird. The Australian stayed behind in Leeds to work on his fitness last week having arrived from Wests Tigers in the NRL, but Arthur indicated in his press briefing this week that Bird is not ready to be involved.

It will be interesting to see how Leeds adjust to the loss of Croft, with utility Chris Hankinson an obvious option to play full-back and move Lachie Miller into the halves.

For Castleford, Zac Cini will continue at full-back in the absence of ACL victim Blake Taaffe, with boss Ryan Carr confirming the club is in the market for a new number one.

Youngster Fletcher Rooney was the other option there but he is also now out after picking up a hamstring injury in the reserves last week.

Brock Greacen is back in the squad but Louis Senior, Semi Valemei, Alex Mellor and Cain Robb are all out.

Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers Odds

The Rhinos are massive favourites at 1/7, implying an 87.5% probability of them taking the two points. The Tigers are 5/1, with the draw at 20/1.

Leeds give up 19.5 points on the two-way handicap in return for a shortening of their odds to 5/6. Cas are 10/11 with the four-score leg-up.

Handicap 3-way: Leeds -20 @ 21/20

So which Leeds will we see this week? The untouchable Las Vegas Rhinos, or the subdued Leeds who lost at Leigh in Round 1?

That's perhaps a little unfair, given how good Arthur's men have been. That Leigh defeat came with a lot of injuries, and Leeds have been flying since then in those wins over York and Rovers.

The loss of Croft is big, however. Last week was probably the best I have seen him play since his move from Salford, and his absence will weaken Leeds. But there is still too much quality to have any reason for concern for the home side here. Some of the highlights last week were undoubtedly the displays of four-try wing powerhouse Maika Sivo, who is already one of the stars of the season, but equally the performance of the pack. Keenan Palasia and Cooper Jenkins have been revelations, and contributed three tries between them in Vegas too.

Leeds tend to enjoy this fixture, winning six in a row against the Tigers - including three last season. The home fixture ended in a 38-24 Leeds win, with the away victories far more convincing.

Cas deserved that win last week but I still fear for them here. I think there may be a slight Leeds hangover after the trip to the States but I believe the party atmosphere of a South Stand enjoying the great entertainers again will give the team enough of a lift.

I'm going for a comfortable enough home win.

Cooper Jenkins Anytime Tryscorer @ 3/1

I'm only looking at the home side this week in the tryscorer market and you can probably forgive me for that given last weekend's 10-try show against the champions.

If you fancy a romantic bet then veteran winger Ryan Hall is just one try away from hitting 250 for Leeds over his two stints at Headingley. Hall is 4/5 to score anytime and hit that milestone.

Sivo is in untouchable form and that is reflected in his 1/2 price, while if you fancy prop forward Jenkins to carry on his scoring run then he could be a shrewd pick at 3/1. I would suggest that both of Jenkins' tries came against a tired Rovers defence which had already given up, but those odds appeal nonetheless. Jenkins is in the form of his life, and although he'll only be on the pitch for about half of the playing time, he has three tries in three games and is well worth a look.

Another approach this week is to go for the opposite side to the one occupied by Sivo. He is the dangerman and Cas will have done a lot of work this week on how to stop the former NRL flyer - something KR just couldn't do. That could help Leeds down the right side therefore, where England centre Harry Newman will sit inside Hall and is a 7/4 chance to score.

So Newman at 7/4 and Jenkins at 3/1 are my two fancies for Leeds. Although if you do back Sivo, I really can't see you being disappointed.

Super League Double Delight

Pre-match single on First Tryscorer market in selected games in 2026 Super League season. Paid in cash upon market settlement. 80 mins only. Full T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. 00:00 06/03/26 – 23:59 13/03/26. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1)+ on Sports in 7 days. £20 Sports & £20 in Acca Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excls & T&Cs Apply.

Click the link for all the latest Rugby League Odds

Find more Rugby League Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights