Padley vs Belmehdi Predictions: ‘Paddy’ the Goody takes centre stage

World-ranked lightweight Josh Padley kicks off a big 2026 on Saturday, January as he takes on Jaouad Belmehdi. The fight is part of a bumper night of boxing at the Utilita Arena in Newcastle. The bill is topped by Sunderland’s Josh Kelly facing IBF super welterweight kingpin Bakhram Murtazaliev. DAZN will have all the action live on their platform.

Keep reading for my Padley vs Belmehdi predictions.

Padley vs Belmehdi Odds

‘Paddy’ is 1/8 to pull off the win on Saturday. Belmehdi is priced at 11/2 while the draw is available at 20/1.

Padley vs Belmehdi Fight Preview

Let’s get the obligatory re-telling out of the way. Yes, Padley was an electrician before receiving a last-minute call to face WBC lightweight champion Shakur Stevenson in Saudi Arabia. ‘Paddy’ acquitted himself admirably before succumbing in nine rounds to one of the best boxers on the planet. The pair formed a post-fight bond through battle with Shakur championing Padley’s cause. Josh put down the tools to sign with Matchroom Boxing.

We love a Cinderella story in this game. Something joyous and inspiring to cut through the gloom that often pervades the dark trade. But Padley is not defined by one night, as brave and bold as his challenge was. The 30-year-old is now a world-ranked lightweight in his own right, with brighter nights in his future than his past.

There can be a comedown when a have-a-go hero does well. Think Andy Ruiz Jr. imploding in a hail of Snickers bars or James ‘Buster’ Douglas turning up for his fight with Evander Holyfield looking like he’d eaten the ‘Buster’ who shocked Mike Tyson.

But Padley had already shown signs of his gift pre-Stevenson. He was 15-0 going into his WBC title crack, coming off a career-best win over Mark Chamberlain at Wembley Stadium beneath Daniel Dubois’ starry night against Anthony Joshua. The Saudi trip might have sped up the process, but you feel like Padley was on an upward trajectory even before being plucked from the plugs.

Belmehdi is unlikely to offer too rigorous a test of Padley’s championship credentials. He did take former WBA featherweight champion Xu Can the distance in his last outing. But the Chinese fighter has only knocked out five of his 25 opponents, so it was not exactly a triumph of durability.

Neither was a first-round TKO loss to Ireland’s Gary Cully back in 2022. Curiously, the Frenchman drew three of his first 10 outings, winning the other seven. Belmehdi beats the opponents he is supposed to beat. He finished Argentine trialhorse Marcos Gabriel Martinez in a single round and owns decent points wins over then-unbeaten Alfred Lamptey and Venezuelan gatekeeper Yeison Juarez. But his only brushes with the fringes of world class, against Can and Cully, ended in defeat.

Padley is not one of the fighters Belmehdi is supposed to be beating. The Doncaster boy is a fighter firmly on the rise and Matchroom are moving him well. Another electric night from the former sparky will supercharge his ascent through the lightweight world rankings. 

Padley vs Belmehdi Full Card

Bakhram Murtazaliev vs Josh Kelly 

Josh Padley vs Jaouad Belmehdi 

Elif Nur Turhan vs Taylah Gentzen 

Josh Blenkiron vs Robbie Colman 

Leo Atang vs Amine Boucetta 

Bradley Casey vs Lee Roberts 

Lee Rogers vs TBA 

Kiaran MacDonald vs TBA

Padley vs Belmehdi Prediction

Padley is not a brutal puncher. His style is more mannered. ‘Paddy’ does the little things well and opens up with a fair amount of speed. The lead hand is held low and thrown smoothly as a jab or a check-hook. The right is deployed from close-range with the requisite rip. Padley has just five stoppages from 17 fights though, meaning he will look for volume rather than one-off snap.

Last time out, a rough fight with domestic dangerman Reece Bellotti was tough on Padley. The cards were egregiously wide in his favour and the populace focused on that, rather than the fact that the Doncaster man had probably still done enough to win. It was a punishing battle, but you need tests like that. A vital win to stick in the back pocket.

Saturday will not be as tough. Bellotti would beat Belmehdi if they fought and the Frenchman cannot match the ferocity Reece brought against Padley. I’m favouring the Brit to beat Belmehdi on points at 5/6.

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