Matias vs Smith Predictions: ‘Thunder’ deserves chance against controversial champ

| Saturday 10th January 2026, 6:00am

Saturday 10th January 2026, 6:00am

Dalton Smith finally gets his world title chance as he fights WBC super lightweight champion Subriel Matias on Saturday, January 10. The championship bout headlines at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Smith’s great leap forward will be screened live on PPV.com.

Read on for my Matias vs Smith predictions ahead of this Big Apple brawl.

Matias vs Smith Betting Tips

Smith on points @ 11/4
Fight to go the distance @ 4/5

*odds correct at time of publishing

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

Matias vs Smith Odds

The champion Matias comes in as an 8/13 favourite in New York. Smith is priced at 7/5 while the draw is marketed at 14/1.

Matias vs Smith Fight Preview

While Smith has long deserved a crack at a major title, and has been at or near the top of the WBC reckoning for a while, there is a solid argument to be made that this fight should not be happening.

That view is no reflection on Smith. The Sheffield boy 100% deserves his chance at the world title. But rather it is the identity of the champion, Matias, that is highly questionable.

Not because Matias is not a fine ring competitor. The 33-year old is a former IBF champion and has been a world class fixture at 140lbs for years. But Matias returned an adverse finding in a VADA anti-doping test in November of last year.

Ostarine was found in his system, a performance-enhancer that the World Anti-Doping Agency deems as a non-threshold substance. Essentially, they see any amount as too much. But the New York State Athletic Commission deems any amount above 0.1 ng/ml to be ‘abnormal’. Therefore, Matias’ 0.85ng/ml sample is within the confines of what the NYSAC accepts. A curious anomaly, to be sure.

There is a precedent for the treatment of Ostarine in boxing. Amir Khan was banned from boxing for two years after his 2022 loss to Kell Brook after the substance was found in his post-fight sample. Ex-super middleweight kingpin Lucien Bute had a draw with Badou Jack changed to a disqualification in the wake of a 2016 test failure. Interestingly, that was a WBC title fight…

But this time, while touting their Clean Boxing Program, the WBC have cleared Matias on the grounds of ‘contamination’. Deeming that their champion who happens to have a big fight coming up had ingested the substance accidentally through supplements or similar. Despite essentially ‘clearing’ the fighter, the WBC have put him on one-year probation and have asked for Matias to fund further drug tests.

Only in boxing, eh? In most walks of life, if someone is innocent of an infringement there is no punishment. But the WBC have simultaneously cleared and charged Matias. An odd state of affairs. For our purposes, it essentially means the fight is still on.

Subriel Matias vs Dalton Smith - Method Of Victory

Dalton Smith to win on Points

11/4

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Smith deserved a less murky backdrop for his big Stateside chance. In truth, the Sheffield man has looked to be spinning his wheels for a while. Two 2025 wins felt unsatisfying given the 28-year-old’s potential.

Walid Ouzza was out-gunned in a single brutal round in Nottingham a year ago. The main purpose of the fight was to net Dalton the European super lightweight title to go with his British and Commonwealth titles. Mission accomplished, even if Ouzza’s resistance was futile.

Canadian trier Mathieu Germain was up next in April for a Sheffield homecoming. The visitor was a solid campaigner but, once again, Smith was left largely unchallenged. The punch-power of the hometown fighter had Germain on the canvas three times. A point deduction for low blows was the only blot on a blowout from Smith. The world title beckoned.

But after two easy wins in the first quarter, Smith would not fight again in 2025. Playing the waiting game has benefits and drawbacks. But in a year where Joseph Parker kiboshed his path to the WBO heavyweight title by tempting fate’s fists against knockout king Fabio Wardley, Smith and his team can be forgiven for an element of caution.

Smith has looked ready for this for a while. A gritty, bloody seventh-round knockout of Sam Maxwell was his peak at British level in 2023. The following year a fifth-round stoppage of faded but formidable Jose Zepeda, a three-time challenger for world belts, was a show of strength. Last year Smith was a bit of a flat-track bully, but he dominated the two opponents he met.

Now Smith goes in with Matias. It is hard to evaluate the 33-year-old’s career given his recent anti-doping troubles. But the Puerto Rican made unbeaten Jeremias Nicolas Ponce’s team throw the towel in to clinch the IBF crown in 2023. Matias lost the belt after one successful defence in a unanimous defeat to Liam Paro.

Matias was not expected to reign again but he eked out a majority nod over Alberto Puello in nearby Queens, New York to lift the WBC belt last July. ‘El Orgullo de Maternillo’ has championship experience and knowhow. But can he compete with Dalton and his ‘Thunder’?

Matias vs Smith Full Card

Subriel Matias vs Dalton Smith

Jeyvier Cintron vs Jonathan Rodriguez

Alfredo Santiago vs Hendri Cedeno

Nestor Bravo vs Pedro Campa

Emmanuel Rodriguez vs Fernando Diaz

Keith Colon vs Alberto Guevara

Arjan Iseni vs Mario Bedolla Orozco

Matias vs Smith Predictions

Smith can punch, but nobody has finished this guy in 24 fights. Germain had been knocked out before halfway in his two previous losses and, while the Canadian had improved, Smith was still expected to KO him. The fact the finish never came makes me think Smith’s power might be continental class rather than world level.

However, I do rate Smith as world class in terms of his overall game. He is an able and patient boxer with good ring generalship. He judges distance well and is rarely fazed. Matias might try and old-man him at times. Expect to see all the tricks from the champion. Then expect to see the challenger have his hand raised via decision. Smith on points is 11/4.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.