Australia vs England Prediction: 5/2 Boland to make his mark at the MCG

Jamie Pacheco previews the much-awaited Fourth Test between Australia and England, with the latter having already lost the Series, a match to be played in Melbourne from 23:30 on Thursday, broadcast live on TNT Sports.  

Jamie has a top Aussie bowler selection and a top England bat pick after picking up an 8/1 winner last out. You can check out his two Australia vs England Predictions for the Boxing Day Test below...     

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

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Australia  

The Aussies are 3-0 up. And it's all pretty deserved. At various stages of this Series, they've been without Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, and Steve Smith (all through injury or similar reasons). In the Second Test, they also decided that Nathan Lyon was surplus to requirements.  

Did it make any difference?  Did it hell. Whoever comes in does a proper job, Aussie style, giving it their all and contributing to the cause, with Scott Boland and Brendan Doggett just two examples of players who weren't expected to feature that much but who came in and delivered.    

Fine, that's the sporting side of things, but what of the betting angle? Glad you asked.  

Well, Alex Carey delivered us a beautiful winner at 8/1 on a 0.75-point wager for top Australia first innings bat, which in addition to us having Quinton de Kock as top scorer in the final T20I between India and South Africa, puts us in lovely profit for the year.  

Carey has been magnificent this Series with runs and top-class keeping, so we're pretty happy we cashed in on him when he struck, albeit in slightly controversial circumstances when it seemed he feathered one to the keeper, only for it not to be given.  

A break? Yes, please. In the process, it's been a good year.  

It's not all good, though, as far as Australia goes. Yes, they've won the Series but both Lyon and Cummins have been ruled out with injury for the rest of it. Michael Neser is likely to return for Cummins, with Todd Murphy the favourite to come in as the prime spinner.  

Smith should return and captain the side in Cummins' absence.  

England  

The best thing you can say about England's performance at Adelaide is that it was a much improved one in light of the first two Tests, but then again, that's not saying much. 

For what it's worth, all of Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes, Josh Tongue, and Zak Crawley had decent games at Adelaide, but it was all a bit too little too late, and without the support of their teammates, those contributions were never going to be enough.  

Jamie Smith keeps his place in the side (not that they had anyone to replace him anyway) thanks to a well-made second innings 60, but Ollie Pope may not be so lucky with Jacob Bethell, England's great white hope, waiting in the wings for his chance.  

Will Jacks has been decent in his role as a makeshift spinner-come-all-rounder-come batting safety net, but he's hardly the sort of bits-and-pieces all-rounder that wins you Ashes Test matches.  

Pitch and conditions

We're at Melbourne for this one and the colosseum that is the MCG.

Australia have won seven of their last eight here, losing twice to India in that period and drawing with England the last time they were here.  

This was a decent pitch to bat on the last time India played here, with 474 by Australia being countered by 369 by India, so this one could, at the very least, go to the final day. Let's see.  

Match Winner odds

Australia is 2/5, implied probability of 71.4% with England 2/1 and the draw 9/1, so pretty much the same prices as what were available ahead of the Third Test.  

Look, do I think England can do something that they haven't done often at all in their last few visits to Australia and win at 2/1?  It's not impossible given Australia are without three of their best bowlers?  

But will Australia win at 2/5 given what has happened so far this Series? Yes, probably.  

So, with decent options here on both sides, best leave this one alone.  

*You can check out all of our Australia vs England 4th Test Odds and Betting Markets over on betfred.com

Top Australia Bowler  

If you wanted to create a bowler who's as close to a robot as you could find, it would probably be Scott Boland.  

Time after time, delivery after delivery, he's going to bowl it at that fourth stump line till you make a mistake.  

All excellent qualities for a top Aussie bowler, bet. Yeah, our man Mitchell Starc (for top Series bowler honours) has been fantastic, but he might be a little jaded and wasn't at his best in Adelaide. 

That might open the door to Mr Consistency Boland at 5/2, who should just keep on doing what he's been doing so far, and give us a fair crack of the whip. He has 11 wickets so far.  

Top England Batsman  

For England, Crawley has been one of the best of a bad bunch. Recent scores of 76, 44, 9, and 85 suggest he's in decent form and with little to beat, looks a good price to be top bat for England in the first innings. The price of 7/1 makes it worthwhile.   

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 140,5
• Points Returned: 145.2
• Current P/L: +4.7pts

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