Nakatani vs Hernandez Predictions: The next Inoue moves closer to the real one

Three-weight world champion Junto Nakatani debuts at super bantamweight this Saturday, December 20 against Sebastian Hernandez. The fight takes place at the Mohammed Abdo Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. DAZN will broadcast the event live on their platform.

Keep reading for my Nakatani vs Hernandez predictions.

Nakatani vs Hernandez Odds

Nakatani is your 1/16 favourite, which makes sense given many view him as the man to topple Naoya Inoue. Hernandez is 17/2 to score his 21st career victory in this fight. The draw is marketed at 22/1.

Nakatani vs Hernandez Fight Preview

Are we looking at the man who would be king? That is certainly the view many have of Nakatani. A world champion at flyweight, super flyweight and bantamweight; the Inoue comparisons have turned into fight predictions. 

The Inoue-Nakatani collision course was once water-cooler talk among the boxing cognoscenti. Now it is a credible fight with Saturday night’s The Ring V: Night of the Samurai card designed to pique interest in the collision. 

Not that it needs it. After all, Nakatani challenging for Inoue’s undisputed super bantamweight championship would be the biggest all-Japanese fight in boxing history. But the noble pursuit of pugilism has always been a staunch bedfellow of the inglorious art of marketing. Why use the Inoue-Nakatani dynamic to sell one fight card when it could sell two?

This format leaves two jokers in the deck, of course. David Picasso is the man charged with giving Inoue a nightmare after Christmas. Hernandez gets that assignment for Nakatani. How well equipped he is is open for debate. 

Hernandez has the sort of 20-0 record that looks great on a fight poster. Most of the names he has beaten are the expected early-career fodder. A points nod over fringe contender Azat Hovhannisyan last time out was impressive.

That victory was only the second time Hernandez has been taken the distance, with the other occasion coming in a four-rounder in his second pro fight. The Mexican can certainly punch. He is going to have to against the red-hot Nakatani.

The x-factor in this fight will be the weight. Nakatani is a world champion from flyweight to bantamweight. On Saturday, he moves up to a career-high in the 122-pound division. Nakatani was a teenager for some of his flyweight spell, meaning that so far his shifts in category have synced up nicely with his natural growth. Will super bantamweight be a step too far?

So far, Nakatani has passed every test. At bantamweight, he won all five of his fights by knockout. Every bout was for the world title. Good, strong champions and challengers fell at his feet. Hernandez has proved he has power. But Nakatani is capable of destruction at the world class level.

Far from a slugger, Nakatani is studious in his work. A fact-finding right jab from the southpaw stance could be mistaken for pawing. But the Japanese star uses it as a measuring stick, before finding range and capitalising in explosive fashion. Nakatani’s attacks are built on timing and footwork. His feet take him places most can’t reach, in or out of the ring. 

Now the 27-year-old aims to boldly go where no one has gone before; into the win column against Naoya Inoue. But Hernandez has enough about him to justify some caution. All eyes on Riyadh one more time in 2025.

Nakatani vs Hernandez Full Card

Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso

Junto Nakatani vs Sebastian Hernandez Reyes

Willibaldo Garcia Perez vs Kenshiro Teraji

Taiga Imanaga vs Eridson Garcia

Reito Tsutsumi vs Leobardo Quintana Sanchez

Nakatani vs Hernandez Prediction

Hernandez cannot afford to approach this like the Hovhannisyan victory. That was a give-and-take battle, with the Mexican opting to bite down on the gumshield and take the shots of ‘Crazy A’ before returning fire.

Nakatani will not afford Hernandez those opportunities. The big swings come when Nakatani allows it and not a second before. Hernandez will need to read the jab and time his counters accordingly. That isn’t really his style, so I see Nakatani ending his night between rounds seven and nine at 13/5.

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