Aston Villa vs Arsenal Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: 14/1 for home joy

We look to have a blockbuster Premier League clash coming our way on Saturday lunchtime as Aston Villa host Arsenal (12:30 GMT, TNT Sports 1). League leaders Arsenal found a midweek win over Brentford, while Aston Villa rose to third with a stunning 4-3 success over Brighton. 

Below you will find my Aston Villa vs Arsenal Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips as we search for a winner. 

Aston Villa to win

I think this is a real flip of a coin game, so if I do believe it's a 50/50 shout, the value is there to back Aston Villa to win this one. Unai Emery will be desperate to land a victory over his former club, and his current side are in flying form, having won five of their last six games. 

That means they have won more points than any other side in the league over the past six games, with Arsenal getting 14 points during that period. Clearly, the Gunners are flying, and I do think they will go on to win the Premier League this season, but this test is going to be really tough.

I don’t like the look of the price of 10/11 for them to win the game, so instead I will back a home win. Villa have won five out of seven at home, losing just once, while Arsenal have lost one away match and are weaker on the road than they are at the Emirates. Villa can spice up this title race. 

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Aston Villa vs Arsenal Odds

Ollie Watkins to score

Ollie Watkins has had a rough season in front of goal. Before midweek, he had only managed to score one goal in 19 appearances in all competitions, and he looked a shadow of his former self. 

However, the weight on his shoulders was lifted on the South Coast in midweek as the England international scored twice, giving it back to the Brighton fans as he bagged the equaliser. He will be feeling 10 times better heading into the weekend’s game now, and let’s not forget - he bagged 16 PL goals last term, one of which came at home against Arsenal in a 2-2 draw. 

I’m happy to back him to find the net again. 

Riccardo Calafiori to get booked

With their current centre-back injuries, Arsenal’s defence is being tested, but Riccardo Calafiori looks to have made the left-back spot his own. In the absence of Gabriel and William Saliba, Mikel Arteta has tried to shore up his full-back areas - choosing Calafiori on the left and White or Timber on the right - rather than the more attacking Myles Lewis-Skelly.

Calafiori is a top defender, but he has picked up four yellows in the Premier League - making him the most-booked player in Arsenal’s squad. He is going to be tested by this vibrant Villa attack, and I like the price on him to pick up a booking for our Bet Builder, which pays 14/1. 

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