Lara vs Gonzalez Predictions: Can late raider disrupt Lara craft?

WBA middleweight champion Erislandy Lara, boxing’s oldest reigning world titlist, takes on late replacement Johan Gonzalez this Saturday, December 6. The bout takes place at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas live on Prime Video PPV.

Read on for my Lara vs Gonzalez predictions.

Lara vs Gonzalez Odds

Lara is a big favourite at 2/13. Gonzalez is the have-a-go hero in the other corner, hoping to make the most of his 5/1 shot at glory. The draw is priced at 16/1.

Lara vs Gonzalez Fight Preview

Lara had been all set for a big unification showdown with IBF and WBO middleweight kingpin Janibek Alimkhanuly. But the double-champ from Kazakhstan returned an adverse finding in his VADA anti-doping test and the fight was cancelled. 

As per VADA rules, Alimkhanuly had 10 days to request his B-Sample is tested. It is reported he took this option immediately and the sanctioning bodies are expected to wait for the results before deciding on sanctions, including the destination of his world title belts.

This becomes a very different task for Lara in the light of Alimkhanuly’s forced withdrawal. From facing the most feared man in the division for a shot to unify three-quarters of the division, now the 42-year-old has to avoid a costly slip-up against his own personal Rocky Balboa.

There is an element of ‘right place, right time’ for Gonzalez. The 34-year-old is not getting this shot if PBC did not have a pay-per-view to save. ‘The Chelo Manotas’ has lost two of his last four, suffering a seventh-round knockout loss to Lara’s countryman Yoenis Tellez last year. 

But sometimes fate just needs to intervene. Welsh hero Steve Robinson stepped in on two days’ notice sporting a 13-9-1 record when he faced John Davison for the vacant WBO title in 1993. Not only did Robinson win the title, he defended it seven times before eventually losing it to Prince Naseem Hamed. The pull of a world championship can bring extraordinary things out of the biggest underdogs.

Lara is a tough ask for any opponent, though. ‘The American Dream’ has been at this a long time, first fighting for a world belt back in 2013. Lara pushed Saul Canelo Alvarez all the way the following year, losing a hotly-debated split decision. 

Lara is 12-1-1 in world title fights, having held the WBA super welterweight title twice before starting his current reign up at middleweight in 2019.

The pace of title defences and the level of opposition has been rather sedate. Lara has beaten Greg Vendetti, Thomas LaManna, Gary O'Sullivan, Michael Zerafa and Danny Garcia. The latter is the only big name, but he is at least five years removed from his prime. But Lara deserves credit for stopping all but one of the above opponents and for still reigning as a world champion at the age of 42.

Alimkhanuly threatened to wreak an undignified end to the Cuban’s title retention. The Kazakh is the most feared man in a middling middleweight division. But Lara’s WBA reign keeps on trucking as he faces another foe he is expected to walk over. Of course, ‘The American Dream’ is not at fault. But it is a shame to see an intriguing triple-unification fight in the mud due to an alleged VADA violation from Alimkhanuly. 

Lara vs Gonzalez Full Card

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Lara vs Gonzalez Prediction

I think Lara will find this to be a comfortable night’s work. Of course, a late change of opponent can unsettle the favourite. But there is very little that the Cuban hasn’t seen in his long and distinguished career. 

When Lara debuted, Joe Calzaghe was The Ring light heavyweight champion, Tyson Fury had yet to lace a professional glove and people still thought James Cameron’s Avatar was a good idea. Suffice to say it’s been awhile. 

Gonzalez is far from the worst opponent ever granted a world title crack. But losses to Tellez, Jesus Ramos and Magomed Kurbanov betray a fighter who loses whenever the quality of opposition edges towards the fringes of world level. I expect Lara to win this on points, which you we've Price Boosted from 11/5 to 9/4.

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