Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025 Predictions: Last chance Oscar?

So we head to Las Vegas, with just three races to go in the 205 Formula One season. Lando Norris extended his narrow lead in Sao Paulo last time out with a race win, meaning he is now 24 points ahead of his teammate Oscar Piastri and 59 ahead of Max Verstappen. 

All three could still win the championship, but it is certainly Lando's to lose right now. Below you can find my Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025 Predictions.

Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025 Odds 

Verstappen is the favourite to win this race at 7/4, with Norris 9/4 to take the race win. For possibly the first time this season, Piastri is fourth favourite at 8/1, with George Russell just 9/2 to take the chequered flag. 

There’s been major flooding in Las Vegas this week, with the track absolutely soaked through, but there is brighter weather expected over the weekend so hopefully it will dry out. 

McLaren have struggled here in the past, with Lando retiring in 2023 as his teammate finished 10th, before sixth and seventh place finishes in 2024. It’s not a track that has been kind to the Papaya cars, and it’s something that the championship leader acknowledged when he returned to the factory this week. 

“Vegas has been a challenging one for us in the past, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be trying our hardest to extract maximum performance from what’s available within the car. I’m feeling really good and motivated. I’m ready for this final push.”

Racing down the Strip is one of the most iconic sights in the sporting calendar, with the cooler conditions this year adding another layer of intrigue - and potentially even more overtaking than usual. 

I think the past history of the McLarens at this track is notable, but in my opinion it just gives us extra value. The fact that Lando doesn’t need to go all out for race wins at this stage and would secure the title with three podium finishes, might play into Verstappen’s hands, but I don’t love his price. Instead, getting 8/1 on Piastri to secure a race win he desperately needs, feels absolutely massive. 

F1 Odds

Oscar Piastri podium finish @ 6/4

I’ve not done this on any prediction piece so far this season, but these odds are just too good. Like Adrien Brody, I’m doubling up on Oscar. There’s been 21 races so far this season, and Piastri has been on the podium in 14 of them, giving him a 67% success rate. 

He’s not managed a top-three finish in the last five races so that’s why we are seeing this value and why he’s lost the championship lead, but getting 6/4 on a top-three finish for the guy in the quickest car is good value to me. He has to win races and I think he can get back amongst it in Sin City.