Italy vs South Africa Prediction: Much-changed Boks too strong in Turin

After stunning the Wallabies last weekend, Italy are going to attempt an even more seismic upset as they welcome South Africa to Turin on Saturday (12:40 kick-off, live on TNT Sports 3).

The Azzurri have lost 14 of the previous 15 meetings with the Springboks but they'll be buoyed having taken the scalp of Australia a week ago. The Boks survived a first-half red card to dismiss a hungry French side in Paris with a bludgeoning second-half display and should be feeling confident going to Turin.

Below are my Italy vs South Africa predictions, as well as all the essential team news and match odds for the Quilter Nations Series clash.

Team News

Gonzalo Quesada has rewarded his players for their win over Australia, making just one change to the Italian starting XV.

Marco Riccioni of Saracens comes into the front row at the expense of Simone Ferrari for this tussle in the Allianz Stadium.

Centre Stephen Varney was named Player of the Match in the victory against the Wallabies, while Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane got the crucial second-half tries that downed Australia.

Rassie Erasmus has made good on his promise to give game-time to his Springboks squad, with 11 changes from the win over France.

Captain Siya Kolisi (flanker) gains his 101st cap, while Boan Venter (prop), Kurt-Lee Arendse (wing) and Damian Willemse (fullback) are the other trio to retain their places.

The Bok coach named a fresh front row of Venter, Johan Grobbelaar and Zachary Porthen, while Jean Kleyn will feature in his first match since the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final when he pairs up with Franco Mostert in the engine room.

Kolisi retains the No 6 jersey in a loose trio with Ben-Jason Dixon and Marco van Staden while Morne van den Berg and Handre Pollard are the half-backs and Kurt-Lee Arendse and Edwill van der Merwe are on the wings with Ethan Hooker and Canan Moodie at centre.

Italy vs South Africa Odds

The Italians are rank outsiders at 8/1 to make it successive shock wins over southern hemisphere teams and they look up against it as the world champion Springboks are 1/18 for the win and the draw is priced at 28/1.

South Africa to score the first three tries is an 11/8 chance, while Italy are 20/21 with a 19-point handicap in their favour.

South Africa -18 points @ 5/6

Italy have won two of their last four home games against sides from The Rugby Championship, after winning just three of their previous 36 games against those four nations combined.

The Azzurri are much-improved and, with South Africa flexing their squad, the home side should feel good about making this a contest.

However, since claiming their only win over South Africa in 2016, they have lost the five meetings since by an average of 36 points.

They can keep this one tighter, but South Africa are all business right now and a -18-point handicap may not hold the rampant Springboks, despite their changes.

Canan Moodie anytime tryscorer @ 11/10

Canan Moodie gets the nod to start at outside centre for the Springboks and the 22-year-old Bulls playmaker can touch down for his ninth international try.

Moodie is versatile and at home at centre or anywhere across the back three. He touched down against Italy in the summer series and has added further tries against George and Australia since.

Back in the side for his 19th cap, he can cross over against the Italians for the second time in as many games against the Azzurri.

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