Italy vs Australia Prediction: Azzurri to keep things close

Italy join the November International series action when they host Australia in Udine on Saturday evening (17:40, live on TNT Sports 3). The Azzurri haven't been in action since a 45-0 thrashing from South Africa in the summer, while the Wallabies were overpowered by England at Twickenham last weekend.

Italy claimed an historic one-point win the last time these sides met in 2022, their first ever win over Australia.Below are my Italy vs Australia predictions as well as all the essential team news and match odds for the Quilter Nations Series clash. 

Team news

Outside centre Nacho Brex will captain Italy for the first time when the Azzurri face Australia at Bluenergy Stadium, with regular skipper Michele Lamaro sidelined due to a thigh injury.

Tommaso Menoncello joins the skipper, while Louis Lynagh starts alongside Monty Ioane and the returning Ange Capuozzo.

The half-backs are Stephen Varney and Paolo Garbisi, with Ross Vintcent, Manuel Zuliani, and Lorenzo Cannone forming a dynamic back row.

Andrea Zambonin and Niccolo Cannone start in the second row, behind a front row that features Danilo Fischetti, Giacomo Nicotera and Simone Ferrari.

The Wallabies have Carter Gordon at out-half in his first Test match since their 2023 World Cup nightmare.

Hooker Matt Faessler returns from injury alongside props Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou, while Tom Hooper has been recalled at blindside flanker, where he will re-establish a loose forward trio with openside flanker Fraser McReight and skipper Harry Wilson.

Andrew Kellaway starts at full-back with last week's try scorer Harry Potter and Corey Toole on the wings.

Italy vs Australia Odds

Italy are priced at 10/3 to repeat their heroics of 2022 with a win in Udine, while the touring Wallabies are 2/9 to land the victory and the draw is priced at 22/1.

The Azzurri are 20/21 with a nine-point headstart, while Australia are priced at 4/6 to overcome a seven-point handicap.

Italy +10 points @ 4/5

The Azzurri will be targeting this fixture as their chance for a November upset, with the world champion Springboks to come next week before concluding against Samoa.

Italy head coach Gonzalo Quesada has named a strong backline and they will attempt to follow England's blueprint from last weekend by winning the physical battle against Joe Schmidt's side.

The Wallabies showed tremendous heart in the summer series against the British & Irish Lions, but they had just four points to spare against Japan in Tokyo last month and were fairly toothless against England, with only an intercept try to show over 80 minutes.

Italy ran in 24 points in their Six Nations loss to England in March and signed off by a five-point defeat against Ireland in Rome. They can push the Wallabies close now.

Monty Ioane anytime tryscorer @ 2/1

Winger Monty Ioane faces the land of his birth and will be keen to make a mark against the Wallabies.

The 39-cap international has 16 tries for Italy, including against New Zealand at the 2023 World Cup and in the Six Nations defeat to Ireland earlier this year.

He can enhance his Test-match scoring record by touching down against his motherland.

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