Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: Former City star good for a flash of yellow at 23/10

Benfica host Bayer Leverkusen in the fourth game of the Champions League 2025-26 season, with a kick-off time of 20:00 on Wednesday night, live on TNT Sports, and a game Benfica desperately need to win.  

Jamie Pacheco talks you through the team news, form and his two wagers for this match, where he'll be watching referee Simone Sozza intently. Check out the bets and the reasons as we check out his Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

Benfica  

Benfica are in a very different shape when it comes to the main competitions they're involved in.  

In the Portuguese Superliga, they're in a three-horse race with the other usual two, just one point behind both Porto and Sporting. Since a perfectly acceptable 0-0 draw at home to Porto a month ago, they've won 2-0, 5-0 and 3-0.  

But things are looking very different in the Champions League, where they have no points from three matches. José Mourinho can say he wasn't to blame for the first of those three defeats, but he was around for the other two. The last of those was a 3-0 defeat at Newcastle, where they just weren't at the races all game. They're 25th from 26 in the table, and it will be almost impossible to make it to the next stage from this position.   

But Mourinho will keep on fighting and the prize money on offer for winning each game, irrespective of where they finish, won't be lost on him.   

Bruma is out injured, but the other usual suspects - Vangelis Pavlidis, Richard Rios, Enzo Barrenchea, and Nicolas Otamendi - are all there.  

Bayer Leverkusen  

Since Xabi Alonso's departure a season and a half ago, Bayer's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. They're just fifth in the Bundesliga table and just 30th in the CL table, so qualification (even) to the Playoffs is not looking likely, though at least they're in a slightly better position than Benfica.  

They've managed two draws so far but were absolutely hammered by PSG, losing 7-2 at home.  

At the weekend they lost 3-0 at Bayern Munich but that's par for the course these days.  

Patrick Schick is normally their star man, but he's doubtful for this one after picking up a slight injury at the weekend. 

Match Winner Odds  

Benfica are evens, 50% implied probability, obviously.  

The draw is 12/5 (29.4%) and the Bayer win is at 11/5, or 29%.  

Based on Benfica's results, and to a lesser extent, performances in this competition, that's a poor price on the hosts. 

But in truth, that awful first loss aside, trips to Newcastle and Chelsea were always going to be tricky, so maybe their results need to be taken with a bit of context.  

It's been over a decade since these two played each other, but for what it's worth, Leverkusen won at home with a draw on the road. Both matches were played in 2014.

But none of these prices interests us, so on we go.  

*You can check out Betfred's full market on this match by visiting our Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds page on betfred.com

Most Booking Points 

I've spent a lot of time trawling through the markets ahead of this match, and I'd be lying if I said it was one full of good betting opportunities; it's not. Either there's an unpredictable nature to many of the events that could happen, or the prices are about right, in some cases too short.  

So, the best of a bad bunch may be in this market.  

Here are the bookings points in Benfica's three matches to date in the CL, Benfica's points first: 0-0, 50-55, 10-10. And now Bayer's: 20-30 0-20, 45-25. 

So, neither team is particularly undisciplined and the booking points count in their matches are pretty even affairs. Two of Benfica's matches ended in 'draws' (in terms of bookings) while Bayer were 'won one' and 'lost two'.  

So, it's all very close, and a repeat of both teams getting the same number of cards could be, well, on the cards. My guess would be that they'll get two yellows each, though other scenarios resulting in a draw are possible, too.  

In a game with so few opportunities, I'll take the 16/5 we get a draw here.  

To be shown a card  

Irrespective of the total number of cards Benfica gets or how that compares to Bayer's, Nicolas Otamendi looks a good bet to get one.  

He's played 20 matches this season and has been good for six yellows plus a red picked up on Argentina duty.  

He's one of those real old-school 'the ball may pass but you won't' types of defender. With Bayer having some pace in their ranks up front, a tactical foul or other offence, is always a real possibility with him.  

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Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):