England vs Australia Prediction: Aussies set to clinch series

After a dominant opening-Test win at Wembley, Australia can clinch the Ashes with victory at Everton's Hill Dickinson Stadium, against an England side desperate for lift off in a series they have waited so long for.  (Kick-off 14:30, live on BBC One and iPlayer)

Shaun Wane's team fell well short in their first audition last weekend, and require an immediate response in front of a sell-out crowd on Merseyside to send this first Ashes series in 23 years to a decider at AMT Headingley. 

Team news

Anyone watching England's meek surrender at Wembley will know that changes to the team this weekend are an absolute necessity and Wane makes three changes to an initial 19-man squad.

Wane put his trust in a team of players that he has enjoyed a loyal international relationship with, and whom he has often referred to as having "credit in the bank". There is nothing wrong with such loyalty in selection of course and it often brings the very best out of players. But it also means that in-form Super League players miss out on pulling on that England jersey, and Wane was ultimately let down by his selections in the opening Test.

So out go St Helens full-back Jack Welsby, Wigan prop Ethan Havard and back row John Bateman. Into the squad come Wigan half-back Harry Smith, Leeds back row Kallum Watkins and Canberra forward Morgan Smithies.

England vs Australia Odds

The omission of Welsby seems certain to indicate an England debut for the Aussie-born AJ Brimson at full-back. Watkins must surely come into the 17 after a stellar season at Leeds, while Smithies was a surprise absentee from the first Test and would also seem likely to feature. Unless Wane opts to drop Man of Steel Mikey Lewis after just one game then Smith is unlikely to force his way into the matchday 17.

Australia named their team at the start of the week, as they did ahead of the Wembley opener, and it shows just one enforced change from their stylish win.

Captain Isaah Yeo suffered a head injury early on and failed his Head Injury Assessment, with concussion protocols now meaning he cannot play this weekend.

So captaincy passes on to Harry Grant, with Sydney Roosters prop Lindsay Collins coming into the starting 13 and Patrick Carrigan moving to Yeo's loose forward spot.

The spare spot on the bench vacated by Collins goes to Penrith's Lindsay Smith.

Other than that, England know exactly what they are up against and need to find a way to tame a Kangaroos team that is only likely to get stronger as the series progresses.

Australia 21-25 points @ 13/2

I really wanted to be off target in our selections for the first Ashes Test but unfortunately our tip for Australia with a 14-point start ended up being comfortable as the Aussies romped home 26-6. So well done if you were unpatriotic and followed that steer I guess!

Super star full-back Reece Walsh also justified our favouritism with two tries, but England's main strike weapon Dom Young only had one glimpse of the try line all game and came up short.

Australia were 1/4 to win the first Test and just 80 minutes into the series the Aussies find themselves priced at 1/8 with Betfred to win the second Test. That tells you everything you need to know about the obvious gulf in class showcased at Wembley.

I wrote last week that I feared the Kangaroos are still too good, even with the relatively quick turnaround from the respective Grand Finals, for there to be any real hope for England this series. I felt last month that this could well be a 0-3 and I am unfortunately now supremely confident of an Aussie clean sweep. I was reminiscing with friends this week about the days we used to host passionate radio debates about whether Super League or NRL was better. It feels outrageous to even try and justify that now, with Australia in full flow looking at times like they are playing a different sport.

So it won't surprise you to read we are backing the tourists again here. A 14-point handicap last week is now an 18-point handicap this week and I would still back Australia to cover that. They actually started slowly in London and there were some pretty positive signs for England in the opening quarter, which sadly came to nothing with some poor decision-making in the final third. 

I would be hopeful of seeing an improvement in England after an intense week in training, but I would expect a big improvement in the Aussies too which is ominous.

So I am again backing Australia to go 2-0 and clinch the series. I am backing them to beat the handicap (the 18-point start is 1/1 at time of writing). And I am going to look at a little more value by placing a selection in the winning margin markets, and take Australia to win by 21-25 points at a tasty 13/2.

Australia to score the 1st 3 Tries of the Match @ 13/8

We are offering our popular Double Delight Hat-trick Heaven offer again this weekend, so if your selection scores the first try of the match and goes on to score again then we will double your First Tryscorer price - or treble it if they complete the hat-trick. And the way Reece Walsh is playing right now, that may be worth a look.

Last week I pushed the boat out a little and kissed the badge hoping Dom Young may cross for an anytime try. England sadly scored just once through a Daryl Clark dart from dummy half, and it is hard to justify backing any England player to cross in the second Test on the evidence of the first.

So looking at the Aussie market I actually fancy them so strongly I am going to go for a team selection rather than punt on an individual scorer.

Betfred are boosting from 11/8 to 13/8 for Australia to score the first three tries of the game, and that is my second selection this week - one again that I hope to get horribly wrong.

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