Liverpool vs Manchester United Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: Normal service to resume for Reds

Liverpool return to Anfield on Sunday (16:30 BST, Sky Sports Main Event), bidding to bounce back from a run of three consecutive away defeats. The Reds have been handed a kind clash to get them back on track, as they meet a Manchester United side who are winless on their travels.

The panic around Liverpool has been a little overstated over the last couple of weeks, as they have lost by a single goal in three tight games, including two where they shipped late winners. With Manchester United yet to fully convince, despite the faith placed in Ruben Amorim over the international break, the Red Devils look vulnerable against their old rivals. Read on for my Liverpool vs Manchester United Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips.

Liverpool to win

Manchester United recently pointed to good underlying numbers as part of their belief in Amorim, but that doesn’t tell the full story.

The Red Devils have a high Expected Goals total, which they are underperforming. They’ve had the highest volume of shots, but they’re behind many of their rivals in terms of Big Chances created, ranking joint-sixth. They’re also taking their shots further from goal on average than many top sides.

United’s goals per shot on target is 0.19, ahead of only Nottingham Forest and Wolves.

Liverpool vs Manchester United Odds

United have one of the highest Big Chances conceded tallies, with only Burnley and Forest facing more than their 19. Underlying numbers around their goalkeeping are also unsurprisingly poor.

While United can point to their xG number as a sign of progress, they did sign two players who were expected to regress this term. Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha outperformed their xG last season.

With their summer spending focused on those two, along with Benjamin Sesko, United’s numbers may not be a sign of progress, but rather a result of their transfer business, along with their awkward fit with Amorim’s tactical style.

The visitors have beaten two promoted sides and 10-man Chelsea, all of which came at home. They’ve lost comprehensively at Man City and Brentford, while Liverpool have won three from three at home.

Casemiro (MUN) to be carded

If any doubts were remaining around Casemiro’s lack of discipline, getting sent off against Chelsea surely ended them.

The Blues were down to 10 and trailing, suffering a miserable evening in the Manchester rain. Casemiro picked up two silly bookings, offering Chelsea a way back into the game.

That’s something a player could learn from, but the Brazilian midfielder was booked on his return against Sunderland.

With two bookings and a red card across his last four Premier League starts, Casemiro is a good bet to be booked in this contest.

Premier League Odds

Conor Bradley (LIV) to be carded

For all of United’s issues, they lead the league in terms of yellow cards shown to opponents. The Red Devils have drawn 21 bookings combined from their first seven games, so backing Liverpool bookings seems wise.

Northern Ireland international Conor Bradley is the standout to be booked across the Liverpool side, having been shown six bookings across his last nine games for club and country.

Offers

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