Spain vs Georgia Prediction: Home side to win but not a blowout

It would be fair to say Spain have started well as they attempt to qualify for the 2026 World Cup in the USA. Two wins from two, yet to concede a goal and nine goals scored. Not too shabby that. They play second-placed Georgia on Saturday evening (19:45, Amazon Prime PPV) and they are odds-on favourites to make it three-straight victories on the road to the tournament.

We've asked our La Liga tipster to preview this one and no spoilers - he expects a Spanish victory - but what are us Best Bets? Mark takes us through his thoughts along with his Spain vs Georgia Predictions...

Match Preview:

Spain can take another step towards qualifying for the 2026 World Cup with a victory against Georgia on Saturday. Elche's Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero is the setting for this Group E clash. 

It already feels like Luis de la Fuente's side have done the hard work in this four-team group. They played two of their three away fixtures in September and won both matches, cruising past Bulgaria 3-0, before thrashing Turkey 6-0 in Konya. 

The second of those games was billed as being a serious test for the European champions, but they demolished their opponents, scoring six goals in 62 minutes and making a big statement in the process. 

Nico Williams, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal again started as the front three in that match, with the trio now clearly the preferred forward line for the Spain boss. However, all of those goals came from elsewhere, with Mikel Merino scoring a hat-trick and Pedri netting twice, while Ferran Torres came off the bench to add the other one. 

Injuries mean De la Fuente will need to look for fresh options on the flanks during this international break. Oyarzabal should continue through the middle, after the Real Sociedad man set up three goals in Turkey, having broken the deadlock in Bulgaria three days earlier. 

Georgia were also 3-0 winners against Bulgaria in September. However, their campaign started with a disappointing 3-2 home defeat against Turkey. That loss leaves them likely needing to either upset Spain, or win in İzmit next week to stand any chance of pipping Vincenzo Montella's side to second place. 

They created enough opportunities in their opening fixture to have taken at least a point against Turkey. This is possibly the most talented Georgian side there has ever been, particularly in attack where they can count on the services of PSG's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Villarreal's Georges Mikautadze. 

Kvaratskhelia scored in both of his team's September fixtures to take his international goal tally to 20 in 43 appearances. Meanwhile, Mikautadze has netted 21 times for his national side, at a rate of better than a goal every other game. 

Having so much firepower certainly gives Georgia the edge on most of the smaller countries in Europe. There are still defensive weaknesses, which La Roja have frequently exposed in recent years. 

These teams have met five times in the last four years, with Spain winning on each occasion. They scored 20 goals across those games, with the most recent being a 4-1 Spanish victory in the round-of-16 at Euro 2024. 

*For all of our World Cup Odds and Betting Markets - please head on over to that section on betfred.com

Team News: 

Spain initially angered Barcelona by calling Lamine Yamal up to their squad for this international break, but they have since released the injured winger. Nico Williams was also deemed not fit enough to be considered for selection, while captain Álvaro Morata is not involved. 

That will see the home attack take on a different shape on Saturday, with Ferran and Crystal Palace's Yéremy Pino perhaps the most likely candidates to start either side of Oyarzabal. Dani Olmo was an alternative option, but he suffered a calf injury in training on Friday and may not feature. 

Dean Huijsen and Rodri are other notable injury withdrawals from the initial Spain squad named by De la Fuente. Aymeric Laporte, Marcos Llorente, Pablo Barrios and Borja Iglesias have all earned recalls, while 19-year-old Como winger Jesús Rodríguez could potentially earn his second cap. 

As for Georgia, Kvaratskhelia was called up, despite an injury that has ruled him out of PSG's recent games. He has trained in the build-up to this fixture, and looks set to be risked in Elche, which may not please his club, but will boost the visiting team's chances. 

Defender Luka Lochoshvili received yellow cards in their opening two fixtures, and will be suspended for this one as a result. Otherwise, major changes are not expected from the matches in September. 

Match Odds: 

Spain are the 1/8 favourites to win this game and extend their perfect start to World Cup qualifying. You can back the Draw at 15/2, while Georgia are priced at 18/1 to seal a famous victory. 

If you're expecting the hosts to be dominant, you can back Spain with a -2.00 Handicap at 1/1. La Roja are priced at 19/20 to win both halves, while they're available at 6/4 to score over 3.5 goals in the game. 

Alternatively, you can back Georgia to win either half at 11/2. The visitors are available at 11/10 to score over 0.5 goals, while they're priced at 4/1 to score the game's first goal, as they did when the nations met in the Euros last year. 

If you fancy Merino to build on his four Spain goals during the last international break, you can back the Arsenal man to score first at 5/1 and score anytime at 11/8. Pedri is available at 11/4 to score anytime, while his Barcelona teammate Ferran is on offer at 5/6 in the same market. 

From a visiting perspective, Kvaratskhelia is on offer at 18/5 to score anytime, while you can back Mikautadze to register a goal at 7/2. 

*You can check out all of our Spain vs Georgia Odds on our betting market over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Mikel Oyarzabal to score anytime @ 5/6 

The scorer of Spain's most important goal in more than a decade, Oyarzabal has found club football frustrating in a declining Real Sociedad side since he netted the winner in the final of Euro 2024. 

He has enjoyed life in the national set-up, though. With his country, he can still link up with former La Real teammates such as Merino, Martín Zubimendi and Robin Le Normand, who should all start this game. The 28-year-old scored three times in four appearances during the 2024/25 Nations League, and has already registered four goal contributions in this World Cup qualifying group. 

The forward should get opportunities against a relatively unconvincing Georgian defence, and I'm backing Oyarzabal to score anytime at 5/6. 

Bet 2 - Spain to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 5/4 

This game may not be quite as exciting as it might have been, given the absence of Williams and Yamal, and the fitness concerns over Kvaratskhelia. Georgia are unlikely to have enough of the ball to get their talisman seriously involved in the game in any contest. 

Spain should still be dominant, but there is a risk they settle back into some of their bad old habits without their two talented wingers, who both stretch the game and offer a bit of variety. Prior to the emergence of those two, La Roja frequently controlled possession, but lacked cutting edge. 

De la Fuente will be keen to ensure there is no repeat of that on Saturday, but it's only natural that their attacking threat will drop, particularly without Yamal on the pitch. That offers a degree of hope to the away team, but the outcome should still be the same, and I'm backing Spain to win and Under 3.5 goals at 5/4. 

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