Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction: Mbappe the form man to score on Saturday

We have a Madrid-Derby in the middle of Saturday afternoon, which will be available to watch via the Premier Sports Player. Atletico host Real looking to drag themselves away from their early-season mid-table position. Kick-off is set for 15:15.

Our La Liga Betting Expert gets the assignment for this one and you can check out his Atletico vs Real Madrid Predictions below...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

The biggest match of the Spanish football season so far takes place on Saturday, as city rivals Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid clash at the Estadio Metropolitano. 

Atleti have been competitive against their neighbours throughout the Diego Simeone era. However, they're not used to being this far back at such an early stage in the campaign. Nine points separate the sides, and defeat for Los Rojiblancos would surely end any hopes they might have of competing for the title. 

They almost lost a home Madrid derby on Wednesday night, with Rayo Vallecano leading 2-1 at the Metropolitano heading into the final 10 minutes. They managed to dig deep and secure just a second victory of the season, thanks to a brilliant hat-trick from Julián Alvarez. 

In fairness, Atleti should have already been out of sight in that game, and it was perhaps their best performance of the campaign in terms of the number of chances they created. Marcos Llorente was particularly impressive again, and he's registered two goals and two assists in all competitions since the international break. 

Overall, though, Simeone has more questions than answers heading into the derby. He's yet to figure out who Alvarez's best strike partner is likely to be, while injuries for new signings Álex Baena and Thiago Almada have made it tough for the Atleti boss to find any continuity in midfield. 

The defence is also an issue. Simeone doesn't seem that struck on his new left-back Matteo Ruggeri, while the central defence has also looked unassured. Los Rojiblancos have only kept one clean sheet in seven competitive outings this term. 

That leaves plenty to encourage a Real Madrid attack that is being brilliantly led by Kylian Mbappé. The French forward has looked electric up top for Xabi Alonso's side, and he's already on nine goals from seven competitive outings for his club this term. 

A brace in a 4-1 victory at Levante in midweek extended his scoring streak, while Vinícius Júnior was also on target with a fine finish with the outside of his foot. Franco Mastantuono netted his first Real Madrid goal in that game, with the 18-year-old impressing again on the right flank. 

Los Blancos have won seven out of seven in all competitions, despite being reduced to 10 men in two of their matches since the international break. However, it's certainly true that they've had a very favourable run of fixtures to start the campaign. 

This Madrid side was accused of buckling in the big games last term. Even at the Club World Cup, when Alonso was in charge, they were thrashed 4-0 by PSG at the semi-final stage, having made relatively comfortable progress until that point. 

Therefore, Saturday's trip across town offers them a chance to make a real statement. A victory would not only reduce the title race to a two-horse race, but it would underline Real Madrid's status as the team to beat heading into next month's Clásico. 

Team News: 

Both coaches started with three centre-backs for the first time this season in midweek. That adds a layer of tactical intrigue to this fixture, and it'll be interesting to see if either Simeone or Alonso sticks with that approach on Saturday afternoon. 

There's perhaps more chance of Atleti doing that, although their central defensive options are limited by the continued absence of the injury-prone José María Giménez. Almada is also sidelined once more, while Johnny Cardoso is rated doubtful. Baena is fit again, but he didn't make it off the bench in midweek, which suggests he's unlikely to start. 

As for Real Madrid, the big question is whether or not Jude Bellingham will make the starting lineup. The Englishman was introduced in the 71st minute in Valencia on Tuesday for just his second appearance of the season. It's also unclear exactly where he is going to play, with Mastantuono and Arda Güler the players most likely to lose their place if the 22-year-old is selected. 

Ferland Mendy, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Antonio Rüdiger are all currently missing due to injuries, but the visitors at least came through their midweek test without any fresh issues. 

Match Odds: 

Real start as the 13/10 favourites to win the derbi madrileño, with Atleti on offer at 2/1. The draw is priced at 5/2, a winning bet in each of the last three meetings in La Liga, with all of those encounters ending 1-1. 

You can back Both teams to score at 4/7 on Saturday, while a repeat 1-1 scoreline is priced at 6/1. If you're expecting the hosts to put in at least a strong 45 minutes, Atleti are on offer at 10/11 to win either half. 

Alternatively, you can back Real Madrid to win both halves at 6/1. The visitors are priced at 15/8 to score in both halves, while they're on offer at 7/4 to be leading at the break. 

Mbappé has surely been the best attacking player in Europe so far this season, and he's priced at 10/3 to score first, and 21/20 to score anytime here. 

Atleti feel like they have their own superstar in the shape of Alvarez. The Argentine  striker's midweek hat-trick was certainly timely heading into this crunch game. He's on offer at 9/2 to score the first goal, and 6/4 to score anytime. 

If you're expecting a feisty derby clash, you can also back Over 52.5 booking points at 5/6. The hosts are the 11/10 favourites to be the team with the most booking points, while the visitors are priced at 7/5.

You can bet on this match via our Atletico vs Real Madrid Odds page on the main betfred.com website, with all the latest prices and full betting markets.

Bet 1 - Kylian Mbappé to score anytime & Real Madrid to win or draw @ 6/4 

Mbappé has been on offer at very short prices to score in recent games, which is not a surprise given his blistering form. You can get bigger returns here on the 26-year-old, who has netted at least once in eight of his nine matches this term for club and country. 

After a slow start to life in the Spanish capital, Mbappé also has a good track record when it comes to delivering on the big stage in 2025. In fixtures against Atlético and Barcelona this calendar year, he has netted six goals in six outings. 

With the visitors currently looking much superior to their rivals, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Mbappé to score anytime and Real Madrid to win or draw at 6/4. 

Bet 2 - Real Madrid to score over 1.5 goals @ 1/1 

This does not feel like the solid Atlético Madrid defence that you might ordinarily associate with Diego Simeone's team. The left side of it looks particularly vulnerable, with the Atleti boss chopping and changing regularly between Ruggeri, Javi Galán, Dávid Hancko and Clément Lenglet in the opening weeks of the season. 

They may struggle to cope against a visiting attack that is starting to click. Real Madrid have created 13.5 xG so far this term, which is second only to Barcelona (13.6) in Europe's big five leagues. That's all the more impressive when you consider they barely had any pre-season following the Club World Cup, and took a bit of time to find their groove in the final third. 

With Vinícius putting in his best performance of the season to date in midweek, and with Bellingham also likely to feature more prominently here, I'm backing Real Madrid to score over 1.5 goals at 1/1. 

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