Nice vs Roma Prediction: No French mercy for carded Cristante

After finishing 35th in the 36-team league phase table last season, only avoiding the wooden spoon by virtue of a superior goal difference, OGC Nice will be looking for an improved Uefa Europa League campaign this time around. First up for the Eagles is a home game against AS Roma, who ended up 15th in 2024/25 and advanced to the last 16 of the competition before suffering a 4-3 aggregate defeat to Athletic Club.

Below are my Nice vs Roma predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Wednesday's meeting at the Allianz Riviera (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 3).

Team News

Tanguy Ndombele, Ali Abdi (both groin), Mohamed Abdelmonem, Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Dante (all knee) and Djibril Coulibaly (unspecified) are all out injured for Nice, who could make changes to their starting XI following Saturday's 4-1 hammering at Brest.

Moise Bombito, Tom Louchet, Morgan Sanson and Kevin are among those who could come into Franck Haise's side.

Football Odds

Roma are missing Paulo Dybala (muscle) and Leon Bailey (thigh) for their trip to France, while summer signing Jan Ziolkowski is suspended after being sent off in his last European appearance, for Legia Warsaw against Hibernian in the Uefa Conference League on August 28.

Tommaso Baldanzi, Niccolo Pisilli and Devis Vasquez are all ineligible to feature as they haven't been named in Roma's UEL squad, while head coach Gian Piero Gasperini is sweating on the availability of Wesley Franca, who missed Sunday's 1-0 Derby della Capitale victory over Lazio with a stomach problem.

Mario Hermoso (calf), who also sat out the weekend win at the Stadio Olimpico, is doubtful, too.

Artem Dovbyk, Stephan El Shaarawy, Neil El Aynaoui and on-loan Liverpool left-back Kostas Tsimikas will all be eyeing promotions to the starting XI on Wednesday.

Today's Football Fixtures

Nice vs Roma Odds

Nice have won their last two home games and are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to make it three in a row on Wednesday. Roma, meanwhile, have won both of their away matches this season, albeit the latest was at the ground they share with Lazio, and are 13/10 favourites to collect all three points, implying a 43.5% probability of success.

Neither side has experienced a stalemate in 2025/26, but you can back a first draw of the season for both here at 12/5.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 10/11

Roma's first four games this season have all ended 1-0, three in their favour, so backing a low-scoring contest on Wednesday is logical.

Gasperini wasn't known for having a particularly defensive mindset in charge of Atalanta, with his sides scoring 72 and 78 goals in the 2023/24 and 2024/25 Serie A seasons, respectively. La Dea were only breached 37 times last term, though, averaging less than one goal conceded per league game, and after four matches as Roma head coach, the 67-year-old has only seen his side pick the ball out of the back of the net once.

When you see that two of Nice's first five Ligue 1 games this term have finished 1-0, backing under 1.5 goals at 5/2 becomes all the more tempting.

However, you also have to factor in the French club's other three league matches, which have seen them win 3-1, lose 3-1, and, most recently, last Saturday, suffer a 4-1 defeat at Brest. Both legs of their Uefa Champions League qualifier against Benfica saw the Portuguese side win 2-0, too.

As a result, I'm opting for the slightly safer selection of under 2.5 goals, at just under EVS.

Six of Roma's eight UEL league phase matches last season produced two or fewer goals, including three of their four away games, while half (four) of Nice's went under 2.5.

Player to Receive a Card - Bryan Cristante (ROM) @ 13/5

I landed an 11/4 winner in Sunday's Derby della Capitale by backing Roma defender Evan Ndicka to be booked, so I'm going to stick with I Giallorossi on Wednesday and pick out another of their players to receive a card.

This time, it's the turn of midfielder Bryan Cristante, who is yet to be cautioned this season, although he may consider himself slightly fortunate not to have been disciplined on the weekend as he committed four fouls in the Rome derby.

The 30-year-old has received 10+ cards in each of his seven full seasons at Roma, including 11 in 2024/25 (10 yellows, one red).

Cristante was shown two yellows and one red in last season's Europa League, all in the same game as he was dismissed for two bookable offences in the first leg of Roma's round of 32 tie with FC Porto. The Italian has averaged a foul per game in the last two UEL campaigns, down from the 1.5 fouls per game he averaged in 2022/23.

On Thursday, the Milan Academy graduate is likely to be in close contact with Nice midfielder Hicham Boudaoui, who averaged two fouls won per game in last season's Ligue 1, and is averaging the same number after five matches this term. The 26-year-old also averaged 1.2 fouls won per game in the 2024/25 UEL, tempting Rangers' Mohamed Diomande into a yellow-card challenge in France last November.

Boudaoui has already drawn a booking from Toulouse's Jaydee Canvot (now at Crystal Palace) this season, and Cristante could be the latest player to fall foul of the referee by upending the Algerian.

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