Next PM Odds: Andy Burnham into 6/1 from 25/1 after glut of bets

Angela Rayner’s departure from her prominent position hasn’t just caused repercussions within the Labour hierarchy but has also seen some considerable movement in the Next Prime Minister betting market.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage remains the 3/1 top choice but the new second-favourite isn’t even currently an MP. So why is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham so short? Let’s look as we delve into the Next PM Odds here at Betfred Insights…

In both 2010 and 2015, Andy Burnham ran to be leader of the Labour Party and both times he didn’t read the room. Ed Miliband surprisingly beat his brother after David Cameron took over from Gordon Brown in Number 10 but five years later, the faithful had moved dramatically to the left and Jeremy Corbyn changed the face of the opposition.

This change of direction coupled with the opportunity to run to be mayor of Greater Manchester led Burnham to seek new pastures. The MP for Leigh announced he would resign his seat should he win the mayoralty but with a surprise snap General Election called, he chose not to stand again anyway. 

Burnham’s decision seemed to end what was a very promising Westminster career with the party in London shifting away from his soft-left leanings. In his absence and with such a hard-left stance, Labour struggled at the ballot box and were twice well-beaten by the Conservatives. This led once more to a change at the top with Sir Keir Starmer taking over and leading them back to power in the 2024 General Election.

Talk around Burnham’s potential return to the Green Benches never fully died-down and now with him being considered the most popular Labour politician, coupled with the struggles the current party leader is facing, that talk is ever-increasing in volume.

With Rayner’s departure from her position as Deputy Prime Minister, the gap has opened up even wider for a popular figure within that section of the party to emerge. There is one massive problem, he’s not an MP and the road back to Westminster isn’t exactly straightforward.

With Starmer’s Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney in charge of the party’s selection process with help from his allies in the National Executive Committee, winning any nomination is not a foregone conclusion despite his overwhelming popularity among the rank and file for Burnham. No leader would want to see a challenger return to the arena at the best of times but with the Prime Minister struggling, this is not the time to welcome back a person who would surely be gunning for his job. 

This is why the 6/1 on Burnham being the next Prime Minister after Starmer is not a great bet. It would need a lot of dominoes to fall the right way. Firstly he would need to find a seat - preferably in the Greater Manchester area - where an MP would be willing to step down. Then he’d need to win the nomination, which would be tough for the aforementioned reason. After that the current Mayor of Greater Manchester would have to win any by-election - not exactly a fait accompli considering Reform UK’s strength. All that would need to happen before he even returned to parliament and could mount a leadership challenge. 

Would Labour MPs throw Starmer overboard before a General Election? Maybe but unlikely. Should they be unwilling, the only way he could be the next PM would be for there to be a hung parliament, Starmer step down and Burnham win the Labour Leadership contest to replace him. Put all that together and the 6/1 on offer (14% probability) feels too short.

Nigel Farage remains the favourite but his 3/1 price is considerably longer than the 2/1 he’d been bet into last week. The rise of Andy Burnham has certainly changed the market and made the Reform UK leader a better bet than he was previously. The fact Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is only the fifth-favourite at 16/1 shows just how far that party have sunk. 

Burnham was 25/1 just over a week ago here at Betfred so the money has clearly been put down in support of the Greater Manchester Mayor. It does feel as though punters have gone in too deep on him however. If he was already a Member of Parliament then that price would feel about right but to get there, it’ll take plenty and that part of the equation feels like the bigger issue.

You can read all of our Politics Betting Tips on that dedicated section here on Betfred Insights...