Paro vs Papot Predictions: Enter the welter, as Aussie Liam comes home

Former IBF super lightweight champion Liam Paro takes on unbeaten David Papot this Thursday, September 18. The bout takes place at the Pat Rafter Arena in Brisbane. The fight is on pay-per-view through Main Event on Kayo Sports in Australia. The UK does not yet have a television outlet.

Here are my Paro vs Papot predictions.

Paro vs Papot Odds

Paro is priced at 1/12 to prevail, owing to his status as a respected former world king. Papot has not reached those heights, but you never know the ceiling of an unbeaten fighter until they lose. The 30-0-1 underdog is 17/2. 

Paro vs Papot Fight Preview

Paro reached the pinnacle in June 2024, beating the accomplished Subriel Matias to win the IBF super lightweight championship. A division and a belt that means a lot in Australia, with national icon Kostya Tszyu having worn it with pride in the 2000s.

The Aussie fighter found his name in the mouths of a lot of potential challengers, including Britain’s own Jack Catterall. But Paro had the misfortune of running into American star-in-the-making Richardson Hitchins. The Queensland southpaw started well, but could not stop his challenger when Hitchins got going from the fifth onwards. Six months after upsetting Matias, Paro’s reign was over via split decision.

Despite the loss, there are a lot of factors in Paro’s favour going forward. The fact Matias went on to beat Alberto Puello for the WBC title shows the quality of our subject’s IBF title-winning effort last year. As does Paro’s spirited display against Hitchins. 

Paro attempts to take those positive signs up to welterweight with him. Leaving the 140lbs division behind might seem curious on the surface. After all, he holds a win over one of the reigning champions in WBC kingpin Matias.

But the weight was an obvious concern for the Aussie. Welterweight has also got off on the wrong foot, despite Paro having not even competed at 147lbs yet. Papot has already scored a mental victory over the favourite. Papot made weight at the first time of asking while Paro needed a second visit to the scales to come in under the 147lbs limit.

It is perhaps a victory that stands out above the in-ring wins on Papot’s record. His last two fights have seen him become the first man to beat a pair of unbeaten boxers. Jon Miguez was 17-0-1 before Papot out-scored him over 12 rounds. The Frenchman followed that up with a seventh-round stoppage of 18-0 Josh Wagner.

Those wins landed Papot ranking belts with the WBO and IBF. This makes the 34-year-old an attractive debut foe at welter for Paro. The Australian is favoured to beat ‘L'enfant de Penhoet’ and can gain a solid foothold in his new division upon doing so.

It is never that simple, of course. Paro will be aware of that, with his IBF world title coming in a fight where he was the underdog. But Papot has just five knockouts in 31 fights. If the accomplished Aussie is on his game, this should be a straightforward night.

Paro vs Papot Full Card

Liam Paro vs David Papot

Liam Wilson vs Jorge Santana

Ken Aitken vs Sonny Knight

Jacob Ng vs Rikki Naito

Floyd Masson vs Johan Linde

Dharringarra Trewhella vs Lachlan O'Shea

Danny Keating vs Sachin Nautiyal

Matthew Hosking vs Lance McDonald

Paro vs Papot Prediction

Paro is the puncher of the two, but is not particularly concussive. He has 16 KOs from 26 wins, but the bigger names on his record are not the ones he has stopped. Finishing Montana Love in six rounds was probably the pick of Paros’ sub-distance work.

But Papot offers little to trouble the home fighter. He is a thoroughly decent fighter and I think he will stay in there. The Frenchman has confidence that can only come from winning. Two unbeaten fighters have found that out most recently. But at the age of 34, there is surely a reason this is the first time Papot has engaged a world level opponent. 

I’m taking Paro to win this one at 1/14.

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