La Vuelta Stage 13 Predictions: Jonas meets Joao in the battle of ‘Angry Lou’

It’s called ‘Angry Lou’. And with good reason. Friday’s Stage 13 of La Vuelta features at its summit finish perhaps the most punishing climb pro cycling has to offer as the riders head from Cabezon de la Sal to L’Angliru in 202.7km of racing which could define the entire race (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 22:00).

Of all the stages to watch, this is the one. And my La Vuelta Stage 13 predictions will be considering the biggest and best of the cycling world for success.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Let’s work our way gently towards ‘Angry Lou’, shall we? That’s what the riders will be looking to do, after all.

The first 120km of proceedings will be pretty flat, before the descent from an uncategorised climb at Nava takes us to the foot of the Alto La Mozqueta. That’s where they take on the first of two Cat 1 obstacles, stretching 6.4km at an average gradient of 8.2%.

An intermediate sprint comes at the end of the descent from the Mosqueta, then they’re immediately heading skywards again on the Cat 1 Alto del Cordal. It’s a slightly shorter mountain this time at 5.5km, but the 8.9% average gradient includes a couple of sections of 11% which will really put some burn into the legs.

And that’s the last thing the riders will want since they then face the climb up L’Angliru straight from the foot of  the Cordal.

On L’Angliru they will travel 12.4km at an average of 9.8%, with a six-kilometre section between 5-11km which varies between 10% and 16.6%. It actually tops out a couple of hundred metres from the finish line, but there will be some absolutely ruined legs stamping down on the pedals at that point.

It’s no surprise to see those in GC contention as the favourites in the betting market, with red jersey incumbent Jonas Vingegaard at 4/7. The Dane insisted after regaining the maillot rojo this week that he now will aim to keep it through to Madrid. And he will have known from the moment he confirmed his entry at La Vuelta that this would be the day that would test him most.

Beyond Vingegaard, UAE Team Emirates’ Joao Almeida is a 13/2 shot, with Tom Pidcock 8/1 to again get the better of Vingegaard as he did more than once in the curtailed Stage 11 to Bilbao. Jay Vine is the best of the rest at 12/1, and it’s 25/1 bar those four.

Cycling Odds

Jonas Vingegaard @ 4/7

I try not to tip the odds-on chance, but I’m just of the very firm belief that Jonas Vingegaard will win this stage.

Make no bones about it: were he not riding in an era of Tadej Pogacar he might be considered one of cycling’s greatest-ever competitors. But the Slovenian is destined to vastly reduce the number of titles Visma-Lease a Bike’s great Dane will collect.

But in this race he has the greatest skillset, and it is on L’Angliru that he has the chance to truly show his full range. Can he fight off attacks from both Almeida and Pidcock? Will he find support from Sepp Kuss, Matteo Jorgensen et al within the Visma stable and time his assault to perfection?

I am struggling to see a scenario in which he’s beaten. Just as this is his race to lose, Friday is his stage to throw away.

Joao Almeida E/W @ 13/2

I found it interesting that Visma’s response to Vingegaard losing a couple of seconds to Tom Pidcock on Wednesday was to say they were delighted he’d put another 10 between himself and Joao Almeida.

The Portuguese remains in second place and continues to be considered Jonas’ biggest rival for red.

Following the early travails of Juan Ayuso, who has since targeted stage wins, Almeida has become the undisputed leader of UAE and at just 50 seconds back is best placed to pounce should Vingegaard slip.

Such is the brotherhood of the peloton these days, any mechanical would be neutralised. So it definitely needs to be performance rather than fortune which Almeida benefits from, and he will do his damnedest to use the tour’s toughest obstacle work to his advantage and against the race leader.

At 13/2 he’s a great shout for a 1-3 finish, and is the best hope of a non-Vingegaard success.