La Vuelta Stage 7 Predictions: Two 10/1 hopes tipped for mountain glory

Friday’s stage seven of the 2025 Vuelta a Espana sends the riders from Andorra la Vella to Cerler on a second consecutive day of mountainous terrain which again finishes with a Category 1 hilltop finish (live on TNT Sports 3 from 10:45 BST, highlights at 22:00).

After UAE Team Emirates’ Jay Vine capitalised on a 10-rider breakaway on Thursday to record a third Grand Tour success, it is fellow escapee Torstein Traeen of Bahrain-Victorious who dons the maillot rojo heading out of Andorra. My La Vuelta Stage 7 predictions follow for another gruelling day of cycling.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

The riders begin the 188km stage with a downhill section out of Andorra and back into Spain, but after 13.2km there begins the first of the day’s two category-one climbs. And it’s a far from forgiving journey as well, with a 24.7km drag at 4.4% taking them to the top of the Port del Canto.

After a further 70km they will tackle the Puerto de la Creu de Perves Cat 2 obstacle (5.7km at 6.3%) and later there is the Coll de L‘Espina, a 7.1km Cat 2 at 5.5% average gradient.

That all sets up the finale, a 12.1km trip to the finish line at Cerler at an average of 5.8%. They’ll top out 1905 metres above sea level and take on multiple sections of 14% on the way to the submit.

It was the breakaway that had the big say on Thursday, and this could be another opportunity for those chancing their arm ahead of the pack. Again, it will very much depend on the identity of those breaking, with Vine et al having not been among those Jonas Vingegaard and the other GC contenders believe to be terminal threats.

Vingegaard is the clear favourite to win the stage and make some of the expected inroads on the four riders who passed him in the overall standings on Thursday. The Dane is 11/8 for the stage victory, while Joao Almeida and Giulio Ciccone, both of whom crossed at the same time as Vingegaard at Pal, are each available at 10/1.

Thursday’s winner, Jay Vine, is 12/1, with Marco Frigo at 25/1 and Marc Soler and Eddie Dunbar both 28/1.

Cycling Odds

Joao Almeida @ 10/1

A big thing happened for Almeida on Thursday. The second that Juan Ayuso slipped off the back of the peloton, the Portuguese rider became UAE Team Emirates’ clear team leader for the remainder of La Vuelta.

And that could be huge on a day like Friday. If his Spanish team-mate can bounce back from the disappointment of 24 hours prior, then he could do a lot of pulling for Almeida as he looks to gain some time on Vingegaard on GC.

Having lost the wheels of Vingegaard and Ciccone at one point, it did look as though it could be a bad day at the office for Almeida. But he made a dart back to the pair in the final couple of kilometres to ensure he lost no time, and he even made an effort to gap them in the closing few hundred metres.

There was a lot of character in that display, and if he can stick with those two again and they don’t allow a breakaway to get too far ahead, then he could well be the one to emerge from the triumvirate to claim the victory.

Giulio Ciccone E/W @ 10/1

Ciccone has been the nearly man in a lot of ways so far. He so easily could have won stage two to Limone Piemonte but was just pipped by Vingegaard. Then on stage six he and the Dane looked set to make a bit of a two-pronged statement on the climb up to Pal but then Almeida recovered.

There’s some talk now that Ciccone could be a podium contender. But he is going to have to get a whole lot right on these high-mountain stages if he is to cover up for the shortfalls he will find exposed later on, particularly come the time of the individual time-trial in Valladolid on stage 18.

But, just as I backed him to win the mountain classification from the start of the race, I continue to believe in him up the hills. So I think there’s real value in the 10/1 shot on an each-way bet since he would need to gap Vingegaard and Almeida to have the best hope of outdoing them in a close finish.