Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Nico knows the way to goal

Our Madrid-based La Liga betting expert kept up his hot start to the season with another two winners on Saturday night as Even-money and 13/10 winners came home in his Levante vs Barcelona Predictions piece for us here at Betfred Insights.

He has double-duty on Monday with two games in Spain's top-flight. Premier Sports 1 from 18:30 for the first of them and he previews the action and takes us through his Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions...

You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

There's Monday night football in Bilbao this week, as Athletic Club entertain Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Both clubs are hoping to make it two wins from two, following opening victories. 

The summer at San Mamés was dominated by talk of Nico Williams, and his potential move to Barcelona. The Spain international was strongly linked with the Catalans in 2024 too, and appeared to be on the brink of joining Hansi Flick's side a couple of months ago. 

That led to a backlash from some fans in the Basque city, with Nico's section of a mural of the Williams brothers defaced on more than one occasion. It was no secret that his desire was to join Barça, although with doubts about how the Spanish champions would be able to register the player, the younger of the two siblings ultimately signed a new eight-year deal at San Mamés at the start of July. 

There was therefore a degree of pressure on the 23-year-old on matchday one, with a few bridges needing to be built after the events of a difficult summer. Nico responded in the way he knows best, by putting in an outstanding performance on the pitch. 

He scored and assisted in a 3-2 win over Sevilla, and was the creator of the other home goal too, although a deflected pass to striker Maroan Sannadi denied him another assist. By full-time, it seemed like any remaining issues between himself and the fanbase had been healed. 

Aside from the brilliance of the winger, it was not the most convincing performance from Ernesto Valverde's team. Having lost six in a row in pre-season, they looked a bit shaky defensively, particularly in the second half when an unfancied Sevilla side attacked in waves and caused them real problems. However, a debut goal from substitute Robert Navarro sealed the three points late on. 

Rayo Vallecano also scored three times in their opening match. A nightmare first half for Girona goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga contributed largely to that, as the Madrid side raced into a 3-0 lead at the interval at Montilivi. 

Having failed to score more than twice in any of their away league games last season, it was a stunning way for Iñigo Pérez's side to start the campaign. The star of the show in what was ultimately a 3-1 victory was Jorge de Frutos. The 28-year-old, operating as an emergency striker, contributed a goal and an assist, while he also won a penalty for his team in an incident which led to a red card for Gazzaniga. 

It was a typically high-energy performance from Rayo, who secured an impressive eighth-place finish last term, qualifying for Europe for only the second time in their history. 

That will lead to more games this term, and they've already started their Conference League campaign. Rayo took on FC Neman Grodno of Belarus in the first leg of their play-off tie on Thursday evening. Pérez rested a number of his regulars for that one, but his side got the job done with a 1-0 victory in a fixture that was played on neutral territory in Hungary. 

Team News: 

There's a decent chance that we'll see Athletic field an unchanged lineup following their opener, despite not fully convincing in that match. 

They still have a significant injury doubt over midfielder Oihan Sancet, their top scorer from last season with 15 goals in La Liga. Unai Gómez is also rated doubtful, while young defender Unai Egiluz is a long-term injury absentee. 

As for Rayo, it was slightly surprising to see so many regulars left out in their first European game in more than two decades. That suggests that the league will continue to be their priority, and their lineup here is likely to shift back to something close to the team that won in Girona. 

They are short on central defensive options right now though. Abdul Mumin faces a few more months on the sidelines as he recovers from a torn ACL, while summer signing Luiz Felipe is rated doubtful for this one. Midfielder Óscar Valentín is also a fitness concern. 

Match Odds: 

Athletic Club start as the 4/6 favourites to make it two wins from two on a ground where they've boasted a formidable record in recent years. The Draw is priced at 13/5, while Rayo Vallecano are on offer at 9/2.  

The visitors did impress on the opening weekend, although punters should be aware that Athletic haven't lost at home to opposition outside the 'big three' in La Liga since May 2023. For bigger returns on Los Leones on Monday, you can back Athletic and Under 3.5 goals at 23/20, while they are priced at 10/11 to score over 1.5 goals in the game. 

Alternatively, you can back Draw or Rayo Vallecano at 23/20 in the Double Chance market. The visitors are also available at 8/11 to score over 0.5 goals in the match.  

Both sides have issues in the striker department. Sannadi is likely to again lead the line for the hosts. He hasn't been prolific since joining the club in January, but the Moroccan international will be feeling more confident after netting against Sevilla, and he's available at 15/8 to score anytime. You can also back Iñaki Williams to score anytime at 2/1.  

From an away perspective, De Frutos stands out as the most obvious goal threat. He's priced at 14/1 to score first, and 11/2 to score anytime. Meanwhile, Álvaro García is available at 9/2 to get on the scoresheet. 

*You can check out all the latest and live Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Nico Williams to score anytime @ 13/5 

Truth be told, Nico Williams was head and shoulders above every other player on the pitch last weekend. While he didn't have the most prolific 2024/25 season in terms of his goal return, I can see his numbers increasing significantly this term, particularly if he continues to take penalties as was the case last time out. 

He had four shots in total in that game, and Athletic do need him to step up and deliver more goals given they are currently missing Sancet, and can't really rely on either of their main strikers to post big numbers. 

After such a strong performance, the hosts will surely look to get their star player on the ball as much as possible. I'm backing Nico Williams to continue his flying start by scoring anytime at 13/5. 

Bet 2 - Rayo Vallecano over 7.5 shots & Jorge de Frutos 1+ shots on target @ 11/8 

Overall, Athletic did look more vulnerable defensively than we're used to seeing them on matchday one. They finished the 2024/25 season with the best defensive record in La Liga, but their back four has been hit by the retirement of right-back Óscar de Marcos, and the unavailability of central defender Yeray Álvarez due to an alleged doping violation. 

Sevilla, who are seen as relegation candidates this term, had 12 shots in Bilbao last Sunday. Rayo are also a side that likes to shoot from range, with an average of 13.6 attempts per game in La Liga last term, the fifth-highest figure in the Spanish top flight. 

With De Frutos expected to operate as a striker rather than winger again, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Rayo Vallecano over 7.5 shots and Jorge de Frutos 1+ shots on target at 11/8.