Red Star Belgrade vs Pafos Prediction: Luckassen to suffer again in Serbia

Last season, Red Star Belgrade made it to the league phase of the Uefa Champions League, where they won two of their first four games, before falling to four consecutive defeats that consigned them to a 29th-placed finish (out of 36). The Cypriot side Pafos are the only team standing between the Serbians and another eight league-phase fixtures in European club football's premier cup competition.

Below are my Red Star Belgrade vs Pafos predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of the first leg of this Champions League play-off tie, which takes place at the Stadion Rajko Mitic on Tuesday (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 2).

Team News

Red Star head coach Vladan Milojevic has been switching starting XI's between the Champions League and the Serbian Super League. Only one of the players who started the 1-1 draw with Lech Poznan in the second leg of their third-round qualifying tie last Tuesday began Friday's 4-1 victory at Mladost, and that was Brazilian defender Rodrigo, who is suspended for the visit of Pafos.

Former AC Milan and Bosnia midfielder Rade Krunic is also banned due to an accumulation of yellow cards, so Milojevic must make at least two alterations from the side that lined up against Lech.

Football Odds

Velko Milosavljevic could replace Rodrigo in the middle of defence, while Milson could come in for Krunic.

Pafos will be without a suspended player of their own, with former Watford man Domingos Quina serving a one-match ban for picking up too many yellow cards in the qualifiers.

Quina, however, was only a second-half substitute in the two previous rounds against Dynamo Kyiv and Maccabi Tel Aviv, so he won't have to be replaced in the starting XI on Tuesday.

Today's Football Fixtures

Pafos head coach Juan Carlos Carcedo boosted his defensive options earlier this month with the arrival of ex-Chelsea and Arsenal centre-back David Luiz, but it doesn't appear as if the Brazilian is fit enough to make his debut just yet.

Red Star Belgrade vs Pafos Odds

Red Star have won seven of their eight games so far this season, and the Belgrade club are 4/6 to make it eight in nine on Tuesday, implying a 60% probability of success. Pafos are 4/1, or a 20% chance, to triumph, and the draw is 3/1.

Cherif Ndiaye, who opened the scoring from the penalty spot in Red Star's 1-1 draw with Lech last week, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 6/5.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Red Star Belgrade & Over 2.5 @ 11/8

Red Star gave a decent account of themselves in Europe last season, beating Young Boys (0-1) in Switzerland and crushing VfB Stuttgart (5-1) in Belgrade. They also ran PSV Eindhoven (2-3) close at home, and scored twice in Serbia against FC Barcelona (2-5).

The Star have been in good form so far this term, winning seven and drawing one of their eight games across the Serbian Super League and the Champions League, and the only one they failed to win was at home to Lech last week, when, at 1-0 up, they were reduced to 10 men. Their Polish counterparts struck an equaliser in the third minute of added time, but with the Serbians winning the first leg 3-1, it was a futile draw for the visitors.

Pafos have already shocked Maccabi Tel Aviv and Dynamo Kyiv this season, winning both 'away' games 1-0, but due to the ongoing situation in both Israel and Ukraine, Maccabi's and Dynamo's home qualifiers were played in Serbia and Poland, respectively.

So, can Pafos handle the heat in Serbia?

I don't think so, and despite Pafos' four qualifiers all featuring two or fewer goals, I think we'll see at least three in Belgrade on Tuesday.

Five of Red Star's eight games this season have produced four or more goals, and seven of their eight league phase contests in 2024/25, including all four at home, finished with at least three strikes.

Player to Receive a Card - Derrick Luckassen (PAF) @ 7/4

Derrick Luckassen picked up 10 yellow cards in the Cypriot First Division last season, as well as four yellows and one red in as many domestic cup appearances.

The 30-year-old Dutch defender was also a prolific carder in Europe, as he received six yellows in 15 Uefa Conference League outings.

Luckassen has started the new season in a similar vein, picking up his first caution in his second game, the Champions League second-round qualifier against Maccabi in Backa Topola.

I'm backing him for another card in Serbia on Tuesday, but it's not just his own statistics that draw me in to his 7/4 price.

He's likely to be in close contact with Senegalese striker Ndiaye, who was fouled, on average, a whopping 3.4 times per game in the Champions League league phase last season, and 1.7 times per game in the Serbian Super League.

Luckassen's card tally in 2024/25, coupled with Ndiaye's proficiency in winning fouls, fuels my belief that we're on to a winner here.

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