Mallorca vs Barcelona Prediction: Back Barca to win but what are the Best Value Bets?

We are delighted to confirm that our La Liga Betting Expert Mark Sochon is returning to provide comprehensive coverage of Spain's top division this season. He opens the 25/26 campaign with the reigning champions and he's expected them to chalk up victory on Saturday evening.

You can read his full match preview here on Betfred Insights and also check out his top two bets - both at longer than Evens this week - as he takes us through his Mallorca vs Barcelona Predictions...

You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Barcelona begin their title defence in Spain with a trip to sunny Mallorca on Saturday. Hansi Flick’s side were very worthy champions of La Liga 2024/25, but they’ll be anticipating a closer title race with Real Madrid this time around. 

No club has won back-to-back league titles in Spain since Barça managed the feat under Ernesto Valverde between 2017 and 2019. However, Flick’s current squad looks well-equipped to defend their crown, having won every domestic trophy on offer last term. 

They’ve supplemented their attacking options with the loan signing of Englishman Marcus Rashford from Manchester United. While there doesn’t look to be an obvious starting role for the 27-year-old in this side when everyone is fit, Rashford’s versatility and ability to play in any position across the front three should make him a very useful addition. 

Barça have not suffered any other significant departures in attack or midfield, so a side that rattled in 174 goals in all competitions last season should be very strong in the final third again. They’ve already scored 20 goals in four pre-season games, including five in the demolition of Italian big-spenders Como last time out. 

However, there are one or two doubts at the other end of the pitch. The most significant lies in central defence following the surprise departure of Iñigo Martínez to join Saudi club Al-Nassr only last weekend. Martínez was arguably the best centre-back in La Liga last term, and the player who was credited with organising the offside trap that was so crucial to the team’s success. 

Somebody will need to step up and take on that responsibility, if Flick’s high-risk high line is to work as effectively again, while there’s also set to be a change in goal following the signing of Joan García from local rivals Espanyol. 

Whether Mallorca have the tools to expose Barça’s high line in this match is more doubtful. The Balearic Islanders are sure to operate with target man Vedat Muriqi leading the line. The Kosovar forward averaged 4.7 aerial challenges won per game in La Liga 2024/25, the second best record in the division, although he doesn’t exactly have the legs to run beyond the visiting defence. 

He’s a key part of a really settled Mallorca squad that secured a solid 10th-place finish last term. However, that wasn’t enough to please all their supporters who were frustrated with an uninspiring style of play, and a goal tally of just 35, fewer than two of the three relegated clubs. 

The natural next step for Jagoba Arrasate’s side would be to kick on and mount a serious challenge for Europe this season. That might be easier said than done though, given they’ve only added three players to their squad so far. 

Lucas Bergström and Mateo Joseph have joined from Chelsea and Leeds respectively, but are only expected to be squad players. Their main summer addition is that of Pablo Torre, with the 22-year-old joining on a €5m deal from this weekend’s opponents Barcelona. 

Torre could go straight into the starting lineup to make his competitive debut against his old club, and he should add a bit more creativity for a Mallorca side that concluded their pre-season with a solid 2-0 victory over Bundesliga outfit Hamburg. They won four of their six friendlies overall, but were thrashed 4-0 by Lyon at the end of last month. 

Mallorca vs Barcelona TV:

Premier Sports is once again the primary home of La Liga and this match will be live on Premier Sports 2. Kick-off is set for 18:30 on Saturday evening. Live Streaming will be available via the Premier Sports Player service.

Team News: 

Midfielder Samú Costa is the only major injury absentee for Mallorca. They’re likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 system, with Torre and Takuma Asano potentially operating on the flanks, with the goal of providing service to Muriqi. 

Leo Román is expected to be preferred to Dominik Greif in goal, following some impressive performances from the 25-year-old whenever he was given the opportunity to play last term. 

As is becoming something of tradition at this time of year, Barcelona head into their opening league game still needing to register a number of players. Rashford, Joan García, Oriol Romeu and Wojciech Szczęsny currently fall into the unregistered category. They are hopeful of being able to sort out the necessary paperwork so that at least García, and possibly Rashford, can feature in this match. 

Two of Flick’s most experienced players won’t be involved. Marc-André ter Stegen is sidelined until late 2025 with a back problem, with the exact length of his absence the source of a major rift between the German and the club this summer, one that briefly saw the keeper stripped of the captaincy. 

Robert Lewandowski is also out injured, leaving Ferrán Torres as the most likely candidate to start up front. 

Key Odds

Barcelona are the 4/9 favourites to win their opening league game. However, if you see them running into trouble in Palma, you can back Mallorca to win at 6/1, while the draw is priced at 18/5. 

The goals kept on flowing in Barça games last term, and if you’re expecting that trend to continue, there are plenty of options in the Goals markets. Both teams to score is available at 4/5, while Over 2.5 goals is on offer at 8/13. You can also back Barcelona to score over 2.5 goals at 13/8, while the visitors are priced at 6/5 with a -1.00 Handicap. 

With no Lewandowski, Ferran could be the main goal threat for the Catalans, with the 25-year-old, who scored 19 times in all competitions last term, looking pretty good at 11/8 to score anytime. Meanwhile, you can take your pick in the same market with Raphinha on offer at 7/5, Lamine Yamal priced at 13/8 and Rashford available at 6/4 to register a debut goal, assuming he is registered in time. 

If you’re expecting the hosts to be competitive, you can back Mallorca or Draw at 13/8. Muriqi is seen as their most likely scorer at 13/5 to net anytime, while you can back Torre to come back to haunt his old club by scoring in this game at 6/1. 

*You can check out all the latest and live Mallorca vs Barcelona Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Barcelona to win & Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 

While the opposition hasn’t been particularly strong, Barcelona do look to have immediately found their groove again during pre-season. 

They were so impressive last term, with real quality on both flanks and Pedri outstanding in midfield, and given they weren’t involved in the Club World Cup, there’s no reason to expect a sluggish start from the defending champions. 

While Mallorca are a relatively organised team that typically doesn’t concede too many goals, they had no real answer for Barça’s brilliant attacking play last term, losing this fixture 5-1 last December. It may be a bit closer than that on Saturday, but I’m backing Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals at 21/20. 

Bet 2 - Over 15.5 Barcelona shots & Barcelona most corners @ 21/20 

These are actually two of the most settled teams in La Liga, with major transfer activity limited to one or two comings and goings at each club, while both coaches are set for their second seasons in their respective jobs. 

While he clearly has far more talent at his disposal, there’s no doubting that Flick came out on top in the two meetings last term. Mallorca’s usually robust defence was breached time and time again, with Barça registering 60 shots across the two meetings, and comfortably winning the corner count on each occasion. 

Those were both midweek fixtures, which saw Arrasate employ some rotation, but the Mallorca boss hasn’t really found an effective formula for countering this opposition to date. He’s by no means alone in that, but I’m expecting another dominant display from the away team here, and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Over 15.5 Barcelona shots & Barcelona most corners at 21/20.