Tour de France Stage 18 Predictions: 22/1 Healy to challenge Pogacar for glory
Following Wednesday’s crash-affected sprint finish, it’s back up the mountains on Thursday as Stage 18 of the Tour de France takes the riders on the most punishing trek of the three weeks (live from 12:30 BST on TNT Sports 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).
The 171.5km route between Vif and Courchevel includes 5,500 metres of elevation and three separate trips up super-category climbs, the last being up the Col de la Loze for a summit finish. My Tour de France Stage 18 predictions will count on this being another big day for the GC contenders.
Three-time Tour winner Tadej Pogacar is a massive favourite. Prohibitively so. He’s 4/6 to claim a fifth stage victory of 2025 and edge further ahead of Jonas Vingegaard, who is 9/2 to take the tape and mix things up a little in the GC contest… if you can call it that at this point.
Beyond those two, Thymen Arensman is most fancied at 20/1, with Carlos Rodriguez and Ben Healy both 22/1. The Mont Ventoux conqueror of Stage 16, Valentin Paret-Peintre, is 25/1 alongside Enric Mas, who he battled past in the breakaway on Tuesday.
The length of the three climbs make this the most draining day of the Tour, with more elevation metres than any other stage. That will make it difficult for those hoping to form a breakaway, with the GC guys likely to have the power to reel them in on the Col de la Loze at the end of the arduous parcours.
The first huge climb comes at the Col du Glandon, a 21.7km journey at an average 5.1% which peaks 62km into the action. And as soon as the riders hit the foot on the other side, they begin their way up the Col de la Madeleine, a 19.2km effort at 7.9%.
That all serves as an appetiser to the Col de la Loze, which covers the last 26.4 kilometres at a 6.5% average gradient.
This will not be a stage for the faint-hearted.
Tadej Pogacar @ 4/6
I don’t blame you if you’re not on board with this, but the blooming obvious is worth stating sometimes. This ought to be the day Pogacar claims a 22nd career stage win at the Tour and all-but secures the yellow jersey for a fourth time.
He’s just too good when the mountains really get to the legs of everyone else, with that ability to kick on exactly when his rivals are looking to take a breath. And I can see that happening here.
The probable breakaway will surely mount up a lead, but this time… unlike on Tuesday, I don’t think they’ll have the reserves to resist Pogacar. He loves to make a statement and a victory at the top of the Col de la Loze will be exactly that.
Betfred have him at 4/6 to win, at an implied 60% probability, but even those narrow odds seem to be in the punter’s favour.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Ben Healy E/W @ 22/1
It looked a lot like Ben Healy was going to secure a second win of the Tour at one point on Tuesday, but he was just about held off by Valentin Paret-Peintre in a breathless sprint-a-deux in the shadow of the famous observatory atop the Bald Mountain.
And he could well have another dig at leading from the front on Thursday on the three treacherous HC climbs, especially now that he has a top-10 spot to defend with just four stages remaining.
He definitely has the guts to pull off an each-way shot, and he has the form too having secured first, second and third-place finishes in the event so far in breakaway efforts of 93km, 150km and 156km.
It will all come down to whether he has the legs to pull off another big effort, and I think the 22/1 price is tasty given the British-born Irishman’s undoubted excellence in the mountains. He’ll have the backing of his EF Education-EasyPost team-mates, that’s for certain.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Cycling Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.
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