Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena Predictions: A true heavyweight test for The Sauce

Lawrence Okolie has the second official outing of his heavyweight journey as he takes on Kevin Lerena. The fight takes place on Saturday, July 19 at Wembley Stadium on the undercard of Oleksandr Usyk’s undisputed heavyweight title fight with Daniel Dubois. DAZN PPV will have all the action live.

Here are my Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena predictions ahead of this heavyweight contest.

Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena Odds

Okolie is a 4/9 favourite, clearly ahead but not the 1/16 he came in at for his heavyweight debut against Hussein Muhamed. That is because Lerena is a far better opponent, reflected in his 2/1 price. The draw is priced at 16/1.

Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena Fight Preview

This is officially Okolie’s second fight since his permanent move to the heavyweight division. But unless you are one of the two sanctioning bodies that separate it, everyone knows his one-fight stop at “bridgerweight” was as much a heavyweight fight as this one against Lerena.

Okolie weighed 223.5lbs for his first-round knockout of Lukasz Rozanski for the WBC bridgerweight title in May last year. While the WBC and WBA recognise it as a separate weight class (more belts means more money), headliner Usyk weighed the same as Okolie for his first win over Tyson Fury. 

But Okolie does look very different from even his bridgerweight self as a full-blown heavyweight. ‘The Sauce’ tipped the scales at over 260lbs for his divisional debut proper, blasting warm body Hussein Muhamed in one round in December. That win netted him the WBC silver heavyweight title, a bauble that has seen him handed number-one contender status with the sanctioning body. 

That is a bit lofty considering the lowly quality of his one heavyweight opponent. Okolie himself would probably tell you the same. Which is why he takes on a far better foe this time. 

Lerena is the incumbent WBC bridgerweight champion, having his interim identification upgraded when Okolie vacated the main belt. But this is a proper heavyweight clash, something Lerena has plenty of experience with.

Headliner Dubois knows exactly what Lerena is capable of. The South African dropped ‘Dynamite’ three times in their 2022 encounter, before succumbing via third-round TKO. It was a wild fight, a classic you can fit in your pocket. Given what Dubois has gone on to do, it is probably the night that has furthered Lerena’s career the most, despite the result.

There are other solid victories on the Johannesburg lad’s record. Every major heavyweight has beaten Mariusz Wach by now, but victories over former world champions Ryad Merhy and Firat Arslan, as well as ex-interim bridgerweight boss Senad Gashi, were decent. Lerena has also knocked out former Tyson Fury foe Sefer Seferi and the well-travelled Bogdan Dinu, who once crossed paths with Dubois.

In terms of pedigree, Okolie is levels above. Putting aside the sub-three minutes he spent at bridgerweight, ‘The Sauce’ is a former WBO cruiserweight champion of renown. Thrashing the decorated Krzysztof Glowacki to win the title, Okolie beat Dilan Prasovic, Michal Cieslak and David Light in defences before losing over 12 rounds to Chris Billam-Smith.

Okolie has regrouped and filled out, doing it gradually via that stop at the quasi-division below heavyweight. After coming in at his biggest weight by almost 40lbs last time out, you’d imagine he will be a little leaner this time. The power clearly remains. Given his high ranking, it will be interesting to see if Okolie can match Dubois, the only other man to knock Lerena out.

If he does, that will create a clamour for a title shot that at present is nonexistent. We simply do not know what Lawrence Okolie the heavyweight looks like yet. He has had the soft-touch debut. Now ‘The Sauce’ climbs the ladder.

Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena Full Card

Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois

Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena

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Lasha Guruli vs James Francis

Aadam Hamed vs Ezequiel Gregores

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Lawrence Okolie vs Kevin Lerena Predictions

The casuals will smirk, particularly if Okolie knocks him out handily, but Lerena is a quality operator. He will never win a world title at heavyweight, but only three men have beaten him in a career spent fighting ranked opponents. That counts for something.

I wonder if Lerena will jump on his man at the bell. Rozanski made that mistake, getting clubbed before the opener was over. But it almost worked for Lerena against Dubois. Perhaps he views a short, sharp shock as his best weapon.

With 15 knockouts in his 31 fights though, I doubt it. Look for the South African to box at distance, try and frustrate Okolie. Lerena will test his conditioning, rather than his chin.

For that reason, I am taking the Okolie decision here. I don’t think this will be pretty and I don’t expect it to survive long on the Okolie highlight reel. The Hackney man will do what is necessary, protecting his ranking and record in the process. But without the big KO, nobody will be queuing up to see him fight the Usyk vs Dubois II winner. Okolie on points is 3/1.

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