Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Predictions: ‘PacMan’ makes the age-old mistake

Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring at the age of 46 this Saturday, July 19 as he faces WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios. The historic and historically confusing match-up takes place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Prime Video PPV will carry the event live.

Here are my Marios Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao predictions ahead of this bizarre world title affair.

Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Odds

You have to go back a decade, to his fight with Floyd Mayweather, to find the last time Pacquiao was an underdog. But due to his age and inactivity, the 46-year-old is 9/4 to do the unthinkable. Barrios is 2/5 to avoid embarrassment and beat the retiree. A draw is 16/1.

Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Fight Preview

Most of boxing’s all-time greats never knew when to say enough is enough. If I was to list all the boxers who went to the well too often, I would have no room left to preview this fight.

‘Sugar’ Ray Leonard shambled to a 1997 loss to Hector Camacho Jr. Joe Louis failed to find his old artillery against Rocky Marciano. Mike Tyson suffered ritual humiliation against Jake Paul. The entire latter half of Roy Jones Jr.’s career was full of such indignity.

But for the sake of balance, let us look at fighters who attempted the equivalent of Pacquiao’s mission and found success. Before you ask, no George Foreman does not count. He might have been 45 years old, a year younger than Pacquiao, but his iconic title win over Michael Moorer was his fifth fight in four years. ‘PacMan’ is having his pro bout first in that timeframe.

Henry Maske came back after a 10-year lay-off to beat the only man to ever defeat him as a professional, Virgil Hill. Maske was three years younger than Pacquiao, but Hill was also 43 years old at the time. Not exactly an equivalent challenge to the Filipino icon fighting a 30-year-old Barrios.

Bernard Hopkins is the oldest world champion of all-time, but there was no lay-off. He was a fighter who peaked in his 40s anyway. Thulani was also in his 40s for his title wins over Nigel Benn and Robin Reid, but also did not have a lay-off in there. In truth, there is no direct analogue for what Pacquiao is attempting. That is exactly how he would want it. But there is also a good reason for this being an unprecedented achievement.

It is because the sharpness and rhythms of professional boxing are a learned skill. Pacquiao is blessed with natural talent. The 46-year-old built upon that strong base with no shortage of unbelievable fight nous and relentless conditioning. At his peak, many put him above rival Floyd Mayweather in the pound-for-pound standings. I never agreed, but my counter-argument was still intelligently challenged by those who thought ‘Pac’ had the edge.

But Pacquiao has no momentum now. He will have worked hard in training. His fighting heart and pride in his legacy will not allow for less. But this is a 46 year old man who lost his last outing against a limited Yordenis Ugas. Pacquiao’s last win was in 2019, in what would have been an elegant swansong via split decision over the highly-rated champion Keith Thurman. 

What is forgotten is that, even in the wake of that impressive win, Pacquiao’s peak was long-gone even at that stage. Given his shambolic career trajectory since, Pacquiao simply beating Adrien Broner by unanimous decision feels like a stay of execution. A seven-round TKO of Lucas Matthyse was vintage Manny but before that he lost, albeit controversially, to Jeff Horn.

Four years prior to the Thurman win, Pacquiao’s imperial phase was stopped in its tracks by Mayweather. People call that fight, the most hotly-anticipated of its day, a disappointment on reflection. But I put it to you that the reason for people’s antipathy mainly derives from Mayweather’s brilliance in neutralising his foe. 

As much as frenzied social media promotion will disagree, Barrios is not fighting the Pacquiao you remember. The little buzzsaw who left Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, Shane Mosley, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito in his wake. The boxer who made a generation of fighters go away like a more precise Thanos.

Barrios is fighting a 46 year old man who was last seen being given an utter chasing by kickboxer Rukipa Anyo in an exhibition fight a year ago. ‘PacMan’ looked out of shape and off the pace as he was charitably awarded a draw. Anyo, with no history in the code of boxing, was entirely unfazed by the legend in front of him. Pacquiao looked like he’d rather be anywhere else but the prize ring.

The Barrios fight was already being mooted then. After Manny’s failure to launch, one hoped common sense had prevailed. Not so. The WBC ranked Pacquiao fifth in their rankings before removing him after realising (or deciding) he was already “Champion Emeritus”, a fairytale designation that means a legendary boxer can come back and receive a title shot. Presumably we’ll be seeing 75-year-old Larry Holmes compete with Oleksandr Usyk for the heavyweight crown any day now.

So what of Barrios? Barely mentioned in the build-up and surely indirectly a little insulted that a middle-aged man is convinced he can beat him. The WBC boss is an underwhelming champion admittedly. Barrios saw his interim status upgraded when Terence Crawford moved up to super welterweight. He is yet to win a title defence, having drawn his only one with the average Abel Ramos.

The other standout names on there are a mixed bag. Barrios beat Ugas to win the WBC interim gold and snapped the unbeaten record of Batyr Akhmedov to clinch the WBA ‘regular’ welterweight belt. But the real big boys he has faced both beat him handily. Thurman via decision and Gervonta Davis via 11th-round knockout.

Those struggles against elite fighters will be levelled at Barrios in the build-up. Pacquiao has one of modern boxing’s greatest resumes. But I cannot emphasise enough that Barrios is not fighting the Pacquiao who carved his way through a record eight divisions at world champion. 

Already, Pacquiao is the oldest welterweight champion in history, reigning as WBA boss at 40. He is the only recognised four-time welterweight champion in history. Last year, ESPN named him the greatest Asian athlete of the 21st century. These are all reasons this fight will do massive views. But none of these are reasons Pacquiao can win.

Time waits for no man. It waited a little longer for Foreman, Malinga and Hopkins. But it came for them all in the end. Each man went out on a loss. Admittedly, Foreman might have done enough to beat Shannon Briggs, but the others got knocked out. Not the best omen as Pacquiao looks to make history again.

Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Full Card

Mario Barrios vs. Manny Pacquiao 

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Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Prediction

Prime-for-prime, despite his welterweight stoppages being rare, I think Pacquiao would have halted Barrios with little trouble. But we are now reviewing a prime welterweight champion against a 46-year-old who has not competed professionally since 2021.

Apologies will be made in the aftermath, but for now the boxing corners of the internet are awash with reminders. Hollow re-tellings of Pacquiao’s battles. Open Instagram and he’s eviscerating Margarito. Flick over to X and there he is clobbering Hatton. On Facebook, already a platform out of time, there is ‘PacMan’ picking over the barely-there De La Hoya. That is the most potent image of all.

Once, Pacquiao was the younger man beating his elders out of existence. As many boxers tend to do, he is trying to hang on long enough to disrupt that common narrative. Barrios is no 2008-era Pacquiao while De La Hoya, weight-drained as he was, had been far more active than the 2025 Manny. This beating could be worse.

This will not be a Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson situation. Pacquiao has at least fought in this decade and is coming off a training camp unencumbered by life-threatening surgery. But I still think this could be an upsetting watch.

Barrios is not lethal as a puncher and Pacquiao was not stopped in the final nine years of his in-ring career. But I do think either the referee or the corner will show some mercy here. I’m taking Barrios to stop the legend, and the dream, at 11/8.

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