Norway vs Iceland Prediction: Stalemate in dead rubber?

Norway have already secured their place in the quarter-finals of the European Championship and top spot in Group A with two wins from two, while Iceland are heading home having failed to register a point so far. The two nations meet at Arena Thun in this dead rubber (20:00 BST, BBC iPlayer), as we search for some value. 

Below you can find my Norway vs Iceland Predictions. 

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As always with these final group games, it’s tricky to know how the group winners approach this third match with a quarter-final to come, but I believe Gemma Grainger will rotate heavily for this one. The Women’s Euros has a brutal schedule with only four groups, and the games come thick and fast, so I don't think there is any point risking the stars for Norway.

That means Ada Hegerberg should be rested along with Caroline Graham Hansen, Frida Maanum and Guro Reiten in the attacking areas. Maren Mjelde, Signa Gaupset, Lisa Naalsund and Celine Bizet are among those who could come into the starting line-up, while Manchester United striker Elisabeth Terland will be hoping for her first start of this tournament.

Iceland will want to end on a high and they could welcome back Hildur Antonsdottir after her suspension, having been sent off against Finland on matchday one. Meanwhile, Saedis Heidarsdottir is likely to come in for Gudny Arnadottir, who was forced off in the first half of the 2-0 defeat to Switzerland.

Leicester City forward Hlin Eiriksdottir will hope to start this one, along with  Sveindis Jonsdottir and Sandra Jessen, as Iceland look to get off the mark with their first goal at the European Championship.

Norway vs Iceland Odds

Norway are priced at 6/5 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 45% for this final group clash. Meanwhile, Iceland can be backed at 9/4, while a draw is 12/5 for this clash. 

Over 2.5 goals is 10/11, BTTS is 8/11 and Hegerberg is the favourite to score first at 4/1. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 10/11

I was going to back Iceland to get something in this first selection, but instead I’m going to pick under 2.5 goals in this final group match. Iceland are yet to score at this tournament and have only managed to score once in their last four games, with each of their last four fixtures ending under 2.5 goals.

I don’t see their attack suddenly getting much better, while Norway’s changes should also limit their creativity. So far they’ve recorded two 2-1 victories but they only created an xG of 0.84 v Finland, and prior to their tournament beginning, their previous five fixtures ended with under 2.5 goals.

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With the changes I’m expecting and Hegerberg likely to be rested, I can’t see them going hell for leather, so I think there is big value in backing under 2.5 goals. 

Correct Score - Norway 0-0 Iceland @ 9/1

This feels like a massive price for a dead rubber that Norway will just want to get through without any injuries or suspensions. They will play in the knockout stages of a European Championship for the first time since 2013 after two disappointing group stage exits since then, so they will be keen to make an impression in the last eight. 

With Graham Hansen, Maanum and the aforementioned Hegerberg likely to be sat on the sidelines, and Norway unlikely to throw them on to chase a goal, I can see Iceland getting a creditable point to end their campaign with. They are unlikely to score, but they should be able to do themselves justice and get a 0-0 draw at a big price.

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