England vs India Predictions: Gill’s guys to go 2-1 up?

The Second Test at Edgbaston was a cracker and the Series is beautifully poised at 1-1 with all to play for as we head to the home of cricket, Lord’s, for the third Test which will have a huge impact on the outcome of the Series. 

Jamie Pacheco thinks the odds should be much tighter here, is siding with India to go 2-1 up as outsiders, and will talk you through his rationale for that. Below you can find his England vs India Betting Tips. 

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

England

Test cricket is hardly a fickle game but the fact that Bazball was flavour of the month a couple of weeks ago after that brilliant chase in the First Test and is a ‘one-dimensional way of playing’ this week ‘fraught with danger’ after England lost, is testament to the fact that there are many ways to win a Test match. And there’s no one-size-fits-all approach to winning a game in the toughest of all the formats.

That England were out-batted and out-bowled without Jasprit Bumrah even playing was bad enough; but that’s going to happen. India’s star batters and lesser-known bowlers certainly stood up to the plate and delivered last week, so fair play to them.

But of greater concern in the long run is Ben Stokes’ obsession with always bowling first. Sure, England are better suited to it than batting first and if conditions are right for bowling first, then go ahead and do it. But Stokes needs to adopt more of a horses-for-courses approach at the toss or else England risk becoming a one-trick pony rather than a thinking man’s team.

Brendon McCullum has confirmed he’ll avoid the temptation to promote the brilliant Jamie Smith up the order and that seems fair enough. Keeping is hard work in Tests and at seven, he’ll still have plenty of time to score his quick runs.

Now is as good a time as any to bring back Jofra Archer. Not only does he need to get back playing Test cricket as soon as possible but England need his raw pace and aggression to unsettle an Indian batting line-up who seems to be peaking. One of Chris Woakes or Josh Tongue are the most likely to give way unless Brydon Carse’s foot injury rules him out. If it doesn’t, his extra stamina and ability with the bat should keep him in the team.

Shoaib Bashir carries on being expensive but also carries on taking wickets so should play, too.

In terms of our bets last time out, Zak Crawley was never in contention for top bat honours, but we can feel a bit aggrieved about Tongue not ending up as England first innings top bowler. He was on two wickets alongside Bashir and Woakes bowling at their Number 11 and was bowling nicely, needing just one more to deliver for us at 14/5. But he couldn’t get that elusive third wicket, Bashir could, so sadly, a near-miss.

XI:  Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, Jamie Smith, Chris Woakes/Jofra Archer, Brydon Carse, Josh Tongue, Shoaib Bashir.

India

To say Shubman Gill had the Test match of his life is putting it mildly. He scored 269 and 161- breaking a load of records in the process-- took a couple of important catches, led the side well and made the best use of a bowling attack missing Bumrah, with Mohammed Siraj the star in the first innings and Akash Deep doing the business in the second.

Rishabh Pant and Ravindra Jadeja were important with the bat as well and two fifties from number seven is a pretty valuable contribution from Jadeja, who just carries on doing his thing, including taking a second-innings wicket.

So, the team looks mostly in good order at the moment, but Prasidh Krishna has struggled so far and will surely lose his place to the returning Bumrah. Elsewhere, Nitish Kumar Reddy was a bit of a passenger in the last match with neither runs or wickets so Kuldeep Yadav could come in as a front-line spinner. Unless they bring back Sai Sudharsan and go in with one less bowling option.

Possible XI:  KL Rahul, Jaiswal, Nair, Gill, Pant, Jadeja, Thakur/Reddy/Sudharsan, Sundar, Siraj, Akash Deep, Bumrah.

Pitch and conditions.

If weather forecasts are to be believed, we have five beautiful days of sunshine ahead of us in north London with only the Monday having any chance of being affected by a few showers. But even then, it will be pretty late in the day, and the match may well be wrapped up by then anyway.

Lord’s has certainly been a mixed hunting ground for England over these past few years. Over the last 10 Tests played here, they’ve won five, lost three and drawn two.

India won’t have forgotten how they went about beating them here in 2021. KL Rahul’s first innings century was crucial (he’ll be playing) while Mohmmed Siraj (8 wickets in the game) also had an excellent game and will be returning to Lord’s four years later himself.

Though the sun will be out, this might not be the free-scoring wicket some may expect.  Australia managed just 212 and 207 in two knocks against South Africa in the World Test Championship Final a month ago. So you’d think the side batting first would bite your hand off for a first-innings score of 300. Will Stokes bowl first if he wins the toss again? We’ll have to wait and see.

England vs India Odds

England are 10/11, implied probability of 52.4%. India are 13/10, which is 43.5% and the draw is 11/2, or 15.4%.

1.5pts India to win the match @ 13/10

With such good weather forecast and no draws in any of the last eight here, we can probably dismiss the draw here at 11/2. As noted ahead of the last preview, England also don’t seem particularly interested in playing out draws, so it would be unwise to not take that into account as well.

At the odds, India represent the better value and this will be the first time this Series we’ll be having a bet on the match winner market.

India will surely be full of confidence after that impressive Headingley win and will also have learnt a lot about which bowlers to target when batting, and how to pick up wickets of their own.

Then there’s the small matter of Bumrah being back for this one. With Akash Deep and Siraj in excellent form and Bumrah the freshest player on the pitch after sitting out the last one, it’s not going to be easy for the England batters. Then of course, there’s Gill, who looks like he’s going to score 100 (or more) every time he goes out to bat.

Much could depend on Jofra Archer as regards England posing the same threat with the ball but let’s remember he’s been out of the Test arena for four years now so it’s a bit much to ask him to go out and take 7/8 wickets at the first time of asking.

Personally, I’d make this 11/10 the pair with the draw out at 6/1 so the 13/10 on India looks a price worth snapping up, given all we’ve said.

1pt Mohammed Siraj to be India Top Bowler @ 12/5

Bumrah will be all the rage ahead of this match. He took five first-innings wicket in that First Test (none in the second, by the way) and had the luxury of having his feet up last week while all the others were toiling in the baking sun.

Bumrah is 13/8 but at the odds I’d rather take Mohammed Siraj at 12/5. He’s got nine wickets in two matches and has been a threat throughout. And it may have been four years ago, but those figures of 4-94 and 4-32 live long in the memory so this is clearly a Lord’s wicket that suits his style of bowling.

You could make cases for Sunday’s hero Deep at 5/2 while that man Jadeja (13/2) is never out of the game and if the wicket is particularly dry, he might get through more overs than that quote suggests. But Siraj has been in great rhythm and at the price, looks the best bet.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 53.5
• Points Returned: 49.13
• Current P/L: -4.37

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...