Fluminense vs Al Hilal Prediction: Clean sheet on the cards?

The quarter-finals of the Fifa Club World Cup have arrived and we’ve got a belting tie on our hands this Friday as Fluminense take on Al Hilal at Camping World Stadium (20:00 BST, live on Betfred). 

Having dumped out Manchester City in dramatic fashion, the Saudi Arabian side are now 10/1 to go all the way, but first they will have to get past a Fluminense outfit that cruised past Inter Milan in the last 16. Below you can find my Fluminense vs Al Hilal predictions featuring team news and more. 

Team News

Fluminense will be without left-back Rene after he picked up his second yellow card of the tournament against Inter Milan. He was pushed into a wing-back role as the Brazilians matched up the Italian giants, so it will be interesting to see whether Renato Gaucho sticks with that system or reverts to a back four. 

“We weren’t used to playing that way, but over the last three days, I got it into my players’ heads that it was possible. We respected the opponent, of course, but we showed everyone that we believed. We faced a top team with far more money than us, but once on the pitch, it’s one versus one,” he said after the win. 

That suggests it was a one-off to me, so we can expect a reshuffle in defence, while Matheus Martinelli picked up a slight issue in midfield. German Cano found the net again, which means Everaldo is likely to have to settle for a place on the bench once more. 

For Al Hilal, there was a positive note for Simeone Inzaghi as Musab Al Juwayr featured off the bench against Man City following his injury. Unfortunately, captain Salem Al Dawsari is out for the rest of the tournament with a hamstring issue so it looks as though an unchanged team is the most likely prospect for the Saudi outfit. 

Marcos Leonardo scored twice and will lead the line ahead of Malcom, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Mohamed Kanno, while Joao Cancelo, Kalidou Koulibaly, Motel Al-Harbi and Renan Lodi should start as the back four. Ruben Neves will continue to dictate the play in midfield while Brazilian youngster Kaio Jorge will hope for some minutes against the club from his homeland. 

Fluminense vs Al Hilal Odds

Fluminense are priced up at 2/1 to win this game, with Al Hilal the 6/4 favourites. That gives them an implied win probability of 40% for this last-eight tie. A draw in 90 minutes can be backed at 23/10, while over 2.5 goals is 1/1.

BTTS is 8/11 for this one, while Marcos Leonardo is unsurprisingly the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1.

BTTS No @ 11/10

This really feels like a 50/50 game heading into it, given what we have seen from both teams so far. Al Hilal obviously had that eye-catching win over City in extra time in their first knockout match, while they also drew with Real Madrid in their group.

Meanwhile, Fluminense drew with Borussia Dortmund in their group, beat Ulsan HD and held onto a draw against Mamelodi Sundowns. Their 2-0 win over Inter was by far their best result of the summer, and now they will look to progress further. With Manchester City eliminated, you have to say the draw has opened up. 

The reason Fluminense have got this far is due to their incredible defensive record. They’ve kept five clean sheets in their last six, and have secured three shutouts in four games this tournament, including keeping Dortmund and Inter at bay. Al Hilal beat Man City 4-3 and so many will be expecting goals in this one, but the Brazilians know exactly how to cancel the opposition out. I’m expecting them to do it again here. 

Fluminense to win to nil @ 4/1

As you can probably tell, I am leaning towards defence over attack. Fluminense have consistently performed at this tournament and I think that back line is so well-drilled, whether playing as a three or a four.

Gaucho deserves huge credit for the tactical tweaks he has made, which has meant his side have managed to silence the attack of most teams they have come up against. Marcos Leonardo is a threat, and Al Hilal have loads of talent, but they also will be feeling the strain of facing off against City over 120 minutes. 

Having gone unbeaten in their last 10, I’m going to lean in favour of Fluminense to get the job done in 90 minutes, and if they do it, they will probably pick up another clean sheet along the way. 

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