Portugal vs Spain Prediction: Back Nico Williams to test the keeper more than once at 21/10

After a sojourn to Amazon Prime for the semi-finals and the third/fourth place playoff, ITV is the channel to switch to on Sunday evening for the final of the Nations League. Kick-off is set for 20:00.

Our Spanish-based Betting expert has been given the assignment to preview this encounter after going two for two with his semi-final tips, as Spain won at 13/10 along with Over 1.5 Goals and Lamine Yamal 3+ Shots as a 5/4 Bet Builder double. Can he keep up the good form? Let's find out as we check out his Portugal vs Spain Predictions for the Nations League Final...

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The UEFA Nations League final is an all-Iberian affair, with neighbours Spain and Portugal meeting in Munich with silverware on the line. 

While this is only the fourth edition of this competition, both sides have won it before. Portugal were the inaugural Nations League winners in 2019, while Spain are playing in their third final in a row having finished as runners-up in 2021, before defeating Croatia on penalties to win the 2023 edition. 

In truth, they weren't entirely convincing champions two years ago, but that victory in the Netherlands now has the feel of a major turning point for a Spanish national side that had gone more than a decade without a trophy after a series of underwhelming showings at major tournaments. It was also one that had only a few months earlier been defeated by Scotland in a Euro 2024 qualifier, piling the pressure on the recently-appointed Luis de la Fuente. 

Fast-forward two years and it's safe to say that De la Fuente has silenced all of his early doubters who questioned his lack of elite-level experience. Spain have not lost a competitive game since being sunk by a Scott McTominay brace in Glasgow in March 2023, and they are gunning for their third major title in as many summers on Sunday. 

Their resurgence as a major international force has to a large degree come about thanks to the emergence of wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, two players who offer something different to those who have tended to operate in wide roles for La Roja in the past. 

De la Fuente deserves credit for being bold and throwing them both into the side ahead of Euro 2024 where they both excelled. Yamal has gone from strength to strength since, and while Williams did not have his best season at club level, he again shone in international colours on Thursday night, scoring the opener as Spain took quick control of their Nations League semi-final against France. 

With Pedri also on target, and Yamal scoring twice in a dominant display, a youthful Spanish side underlined their status as the likely standard-setters in international football in the coming years, by racing into a 5-1 lead on Les Bleus in Stuttgart. 

France, boosted by the impact of substitute Rayan Cherki, did come back into the game with three late goals as La Roja took their foot off the gas in a manner that may be of some concern to their boss. Overall though, this was another impressive Spanish performance as the European champions secured their final place with a 5-4 victory. 

Portugal had already claimed their final ticket by that point, with Roberto Martínez's side upsetting hosts Germany in the first semi-final on Wednesday night. Trailing to a strike from Florian Wirtz, the Portuguese exploded into life with substitute Francisco Conceição spectacularly levelling the scores on 63 minutes, before Cristiano Ronaldo fired in a controversial winner five minutes later. 

That was Ronaldo's 137th international goal on the occasion of his 220th cap, but it was the veteran forward's first ever victory over Germany at the sixth attempt, with Die Mannschaft so often the scourge of Portugal in recent years. 

While Martínez has kept faith with the 40-year-old, he is also overseeing something of a transition to a new generation in other areas of the team, with PSG youngsters Nuno Mendes and João Neves both starting in midweek, just four days on from the Champions League final. 

The Allianz Arena will be starting to feel like a home ground for the pair who are in action in  Munich for the third time in nine days on Sunday. They'll be hoping to pick up another winners medal for a Portugal side that has won six out of nine in the Nations League this season, losing only once in the first leg of their quarter-final away to Denmark. 

Team News: 

The debate over who Spain's striker should be had centred around captain Álvaro Morata and young Porto forward Samu Aghehowa building into these internationals, but De la Fuente sprung a slight surprise by starting Mikel Oyarzabal in Stuttgart. The plan worked a treat, and the Real Sociedad man looks likely to keep his place for the final. 

With no fresh selection issues, we're not likely to see major changes from the Spain boss, although he could recall Fabián Ruiz in midfield, in what may be the only alteration to the side that impressed in the last four. 

We may see more changes from Portugal. PSG star Vitinha looks sure to come in after he dazzled off the bench against Germany, and he could reunite with club teammate João Neves who may shift into midfield, after starting at right-back in midweek. 

Conceição could also be rewarded with a start after the impact he made off the bench in that game, while Nelson Semedo and Diogo Jota are also pushing for starting roles in this match. Ronaldo looks certain to start again, as he targets a third international trophy having previously won Euro 2016 and the 2019 Nations League. 

Portugal vs Spain Odds 

The Nations League holders are the 19/20 favourites to successfully defend their crown on Sunday by winning the game in regulation time. Spain are also priced at 1/2 to win the tie by any means. 

Alternatively, you can back Portugal to win at 13/5 in the Match Result market. They are also priced at 6/4 to win the tie, while you can back Portugal or Draw at 5/6 in the Double Chance market. 

Given all the attacking talent that will be on display, coupled with a few defensive question-marks about both sides, the expectation is that we should certainly get goals in Munich. You can back Both teams to score at 4/7, while Over 3.5 goals is priced at 13/8. Spain are priced at 8/5 to score in both halves, while you can back Portugal at 3/1 in the same market. 

Assuming both managers keep faith with their semi-final strikers, Ronaldo and Oyarzabal should lead the line for their respective sides. You can back Ronaldo to score first at 5/1, while he's priced at 7/5 to score anytime. Oyarzabal is available at 11/2 to score first and 13/8 to score anytime. 

Both sides should also carry a major threat out wide and from midfield areas. Yamal, fresh from a brace against France, is on offer at 7/4 to get on the scoresheet at anytime. Meanwhile, Bruno Fernandes will be hoping to make his mark on this game with the Manchester United man priced at 3/1 to score anytime. 

Bet 1 - Draw or Spain & Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 

Spain have found a really high level over the past couple of years under De la Fuente, and they've been very consistent too which makes them such a formidable opponent. 

They are unbeaten in 19 internationals and have faced the likes of Brazil, Italy, Germany, France, England and the Netherlands over that period. Portugal are one of the few major European nations they've not met during that run, but La Roja have gone seven games without defeat against their Iberian neighbours, with their last loss against this opposition coming 15 years ago. 

Spain therefore look worthy favourites for this game, but Portugal certainly have enough quality to test them defensively. Another relatively open affair looks likely, and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Draw or Spain and Over 2.5 goals at 6/5. 

Bet 2 - Nico Williams 2+ shots on target @ 2/1 

After another impressive performance against France, Williams continues to thrive in a national team jersey. He had three shots on target in that game, and also hit the target on three occasions in each leg of Spain's Nations League quarter-final against the Dutch in March. 

With so much of the focus on Yamal on the opposite flank, Williams perhaps benefits from having a bit more space when he plays for the national team compared to his club, with the 22-year-old frequently pinpointed by opposing coaches in La Liga as Athletic Club's main attacking threat. 

He's averaging a shot on target every 38 minutes across this entire Nations League campaign, and I'm backing Nico Williams 2+ shots on target at 2/1 here.