Venezuela vs Bolivia Prediction: Rondon to raise the roof in Maturin

A crucial South American 2026 World Cup qualifier takes place at the Estadio do Monumental de Maturin on Friday (23:00) as Venezuela (seventh) host Bolivia (eighth), with just a single point separating the teams. Both sides could still finish in the top six, which would guarantee a place at next year's Fifa World Cup, but realistically, seventh and a spot in the play-offs is the main aim.

Below are my Venezuela vs Bolivia predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Jon Aramburu (Real Sociedad), Tomas Rincon (Santos), Yangel Herrera (Girona) and Salomon Rondon (Pachuca) are among Venezuela's certain starters on Friday.

There are several Brazil-based players in Sergio Batista's squad, including Yeferson Soletedo (Santos), who, this week, could make his 50th appearance for La Vinotinto.

Football Odds

Meanwhile, Lazio defender Alessandro Milani has recently pledged his international allegiances to Venezuela over his country of birth, Italy. The 18-year-old has been rewarded with a call-up to the senior side, but it's unlikely he'll get on the field this month.

Influential midfielder Ramiro Vaca (Bolivar), who has scored twice in qualifying, will miss Bolivia's games against Venezuela and Chile this month due to a pending doping case under review.

Vaca's club teammate, defender Jose Sagredo, also misses out, so head coach Oscar Villegas will be forced to make at least two changes to the starting XI that lined up in the goalless draw with Uruguay on March 25.

La Verde will again look to Miguelito (America Mineiro, on loan from Santos) for inspiration in the final third, with the 21-year-old netting five times in eight qualifiers - only Argentina's Lionel Messi and Colombia's Luis Diaz (both six) have scored more goals in the South American section.

Venezuela vs Bolivia Odds

Venezuela, unbeaten in seven home qualifiers this campaign, are heavily fancied to make it back-to-back wins in Maturin, having seen off Peru (1-0) there in March. Friday's hosts are 1/3 to collect all three points, implying a 75% probability of success, while Bolivia, who have lost their last three away games, are 8/1, or an 11.1% chance, to pull off a shock.

The draw is priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 6/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/10.

To Win to Nil - Venezuela @ 9/10

Bolivia pulled off a historic victory over Chile in Santiago last September, landing their first World Cup qualifier success on foreign soil in 65 attempts. However, that wasn't the start of something spectacular, as they went on to lose their next three away games, suffering heavy defeats in Argentina (6-0) and Ecuador (4-0) before losing 3-1 in Peru in March.

La Verde have lost six of their seven away qualifiers in this campaign, and on Friday, they face a Venezuelan side that hasn't tasted defeat on home soil (W3, D4). La Vinotinto have conceded just two goals in Maturin, which sees them boast the best home defensive record in South America.

They've not been able to fully crack the top teams at home, drawing with Ecuador (0-0), Uruguay (0-0), Argentina (1-1) and Brazil (1-1), but they've beaten Paraguay (1-0), Chile (3-0) and Peru (1-0) in Maturin, keeping a clean sheet against all three, and they will expect to add Bolivia, who have blanked four times on their travels, to their list of victims as they attempt to hunt down Colombia in sixth.

First Goalscorer - Salomon Rondon (VEN) @ 3/1

Venezuela aren't the most prolific scorers, netting just 13 times in 14 qualifiers, and they've been majorly reliant on all-time leading marksman, Rondon, to deliver the goods.

The 35-year-old accounts for 31% of La Vinotinto's 13-goal tally, and all four of his strikes have come in Maturin.

They've all been crucial, too, particularly his goals in 1-0 wins over Paraguay and Peru.

The former West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle United and Everton striker failed to get on the scoresheet in the reverse fixture last September as Bolivia demolished their visitors 4-0 in El Alto, but the last time they met in Venezuela, in January 2022, Rondon hit a hat-trick in a 4-1 win.

He opened the scoring in the 25th minute of that victory, and at 3/1, looks good value to do so again on Friday.

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