England vs West Indies Prediction: 7/2 and 9/2 openers hold the trump cards in 3rd ODI

It's England v West Indies in the 3rd ODI on Tuesday, start time 13:00 and played at The Oval as the West Indies look to at least win one game this Series.  

Jamie Pacheco thinks the weather may improve the visitors' chances but it's the top batsman bets with 7/2 and 9/2 selections that he's interested in as we check out his England vs West Indies Predictions...    

England 

Another good performance suggests England may become a really good side under Harry Brook over the next few years.  

Credit to their bowlers for bowling out the Windies for just 308. Had they not bowled them out, that could easily have been 340 and would have looked far more daunting a total. And credit to them for not panicking after losing both openers for ducks, something that has been a true rarity for England in this format over the decades.  

Joe Root was brilliant for his unbeaten 166 with Brook playing a fine hand with 47 and Will Jacks showing his value as a possible finisher in the long term rather than Liam Livingstone. 

When you consider they're missing a couple of their best bowlers through injury and you can see how they can get even better. Will they go for the jugular and play the same side again or make a couple of changes? Luke Wood could come in, if it's the latter.   

Possible XI:  Duckett, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Bethell, Jacks, Carse, Potts, Rashid, Mahmood/Wood.  

West Indies 

As hinted already, the Windies will look back at Sunday's match and think they either should have won it or at least come far closer to doing so. It's a crime to not bat your overs in this format but rather than doing just that, they went for broke and paid the price.  

Still, credit to Stacy Keaty (103) and Brandon King and Shai Hope, who both hit good fifties. With the ball they started the best possible way but fell away in that discipline as well, so there's plenty of hard work to be done if they're going to improve. Not just on this Tour but in general. 

The talented but unpredictable Shimron Hetmeyer is a liability at the moment (0 and 4) but they don't have much else in the tank so he might get another go.  Shamar Joseph could come in for the expensive Matthew Forde.  

Possible XI:  King, Lewis/Greaves, Carty, Hope, Jangoo, Greaves/Andrew, S Joseph, Forde, Chase, Motie, A Joseph, Seales 

Pitch and conditions  

The Oval is the venue for the final match of the Series. Expect some rain delays which could come make it a shortened match but a rival bookmaker's 'Completed match' market suggests we'll get a result one way or another.  

Since the 2019 World Cup, there have been three games here with England beating Sri Lanka and New Zealand by big margins and losing to India after being bowled out for just 110 after a Jasprit Bumrah masterclass (6/19). India chased that without losing a wicket.  

In 2021 the hosts chased Sri Lanka's 241 and last year defended 368 against New Zealand thanks to 182 from Ben Stokes. So it's not an easy wicket to predict in terms of first innings runs.   

England vs West Indies Odds

Ordinarily, the circumstances here would dictate a simple strategy of backing the outsider at 7/2. The reasoning is simple: the Windies are a far better T20I side than ODI one so a reduction in overs would play into their hands because it suits their aggressive batting based on scoring boundaries rather than being able to take a more measured approach.  The shorter the game the better their chances, is the logic.  

But there are three problems with the approach. The first is we don't really trust the Windies to hold their nerve full stop, the second is we don't know how many overs could be lost and the third is that the odds-compilers are wise to the possibility of a shortened match and how it may impact things. That's why Hope's men are 7/2, a shorter price than the 9/2 they were ahead of the second game…which they lost. 

So we'll note the price and keen an eye on the live betting market. If it overreacts and pushes the Windies out to say a 5/1 quote, that might be a bet, but we won't back them pre-match at such skinny odds.  

Top Runscorers  

Whereas the Betfred odds-compilers haven't missed a trick in shortening the Windies, they may have done so with prices on some of the batsmen. It's always worth re-iterating that openers hold all the trump cards anyway for top bat bets because they get to bat the longest and during the Powerplays. And it's even more the case here in what could end up being a 20-over a side match.  

So first up, step forward Ben Duckett. He may have been one of the two out for a duck last time out but he hit 160 in that Test against Zimbabwe and a fine 60 in the 1st ODI so is certainly in form. Less overs certainly won't make any difference to him and his approach, so he looks a good price at 7/2. 

The same could be said of Brandon King for the Windies at an even bigger 9/2. He's another who can be a bit infuriating by not kicking on after starts. But his ODI record is good, he hit a fine 60 the other day and that's just too big a price on an opener in light of what we've said.  

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• Points Staked: 41.25
• Points Returned: 39.13
• Current P/L: -2.12