Hurricanes vs Moana Pasifika Prediction: Visitors can take advantage of head start

An important contest in the context of the Finals Series in the Super Rugby Pacific season takes place at the Wellington Regional Stadium on Saturday (08:05, Sky Sports Action), when the Hurricanes host Moana Pasifika.

Below is my Hurricanes v Moana Pasifika prediction piece, as well as all the essential team news and match odds for the showdown in Wellington.

Team News

The Hurricanes have made five changes from the narrow win over the Reds last time out and three of those come in the forwards, with Jacob Devery in for Asafo Aumua at hooker, Hugo Plummer replacing Isaia Walker-Leawere at lock and Devan Flanders taking Brad Shields' position in the back row.

In the backs, Ruben Love moves from fly-half to full-back, replacing Callum Harkin at 15, with Brett Cameron coming in to start at 10, while Bailyn Sullivan is preferred to Daniel Sinkinson on the wing.

Rugby Union Odds

As for Moana Pasifika, they have made just one alteration from the 85-7 thrashing at the hands of the Chiefs, with Julian Savea taking the place of Danny Toala at inside centre.

Lotu Inisi, Moana's 2024 Forward and Attacking Player of the Year, has been named on the bench and is set to make his seasonal debut after recovering from a long injury.

Hurricanes vs Moana Pasifika Odds

The Hurricanes are 2/9 favourites to chalk up their eighth win of the campaign, with the draw priced at 22/1 and Moana Pasifika 10/3, or a 23.1% chance, to record the victory that could secure their place in the Finals Series.

Moana Pasifika +12 handicap @ 20/21

The fourth-placed Hurricanes are guaranteed a place in the Finals Series, but they can't finish any higher than their current position and can only drop as low as fifth, meaning they will likely avoid travelling to the table-topping Chiefs in the quarter-finals.

That raises doubts about how focused Clark Laidlaw's side will be heading into this contest, and it would be no surprise to see them take their foot off the gas at times during this contest.

It is a different story for sixth-placed Moana heading into this clash, as they are level on points with the Blues in seventh and just two points clear of the eighth-placed Waratahs. Those other two face each other in their last match.

Tana Umaga's troops are under pressure to pick up the victory, and they come into this clash on the back of a hammering by the Chiefs, who stuck 85 points past Pasifika last time out.

An instant response will be demanded from the New Zealand coach, who had seen his side rack up three victories in a row before that immensely disappointing performance.

While the Hurricanes are on a five-game unbeaten run, drawing one and winning four, three of those victories have been by six points or less, so they are not blowing opponents away.

If Moana can put the heavy loss to the Chiefs behind them quickly, they could have enough to get the win, but the safer play looks to be backing them with a +12 handicap start.

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