Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction: Another low-scoring contest as Conte looks to clinch Scudetto

Back-to-back draws against Genoa (2-2) and Parma (0-0) have seen Napoli stumble in the Serie A title race, but fortunately for Antonio Conte's side, Scudetto rivals Inter Milan were held to a stalemate of their own at home to Lazio (2-2) last Sunday, meaning Gli Azzurri head into the final round of Serie A fixtures this week a point ahead of I Nerazzurri.

On Friday evening (19:45), Inter head to the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to take on in-form Como, while Napoli host 14th-placed Cagliari at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, looking for the win that would see them crowned champions for the second time in three seasons. Below are my Napoli vs Cagliari predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this potential title-decider in Naples, which will be shown live on TNT Sports 1.

Team News

Napoli are sweating on the fitness of midfielder Stanislav Lobotka (ankle) and defender Alessandro Buongiorno (thigh), who both missed out last weekend due to injury. Billy Gilmour started in place of Lobotka against Parma, and the Scotland international should keep his place on Friday.

Like Buongiorno, Juan Jesus was absent last Sunday with a thigh issue, but the Brazilian centre-back could return for his side's season finale, although Uruguayan full-back Mathias Olivera could keep his spot in the middle alongside Amir Rrahmani after helping Napoli to another clean sheet last time out.

Football Odds

Gli Azzurri mustered just seven attempts last weekend, so Conte could turn to David Neres to offer some more invention on Friday.

Zito Luvumbo (thigh), goalkeeper Elia Caprile (leg) and Napoli loanee Gianluca Gaetano (knee) are sidelined for Cagliari, who have sent Nadir Zortea for an ultrasound.

If Zortea isn't passed fit, Cagliari head coach Davide Nicola will be forced to make at least three changes to the line-up that began last Sunday's 3-0 victory over Venezia. Alen Sherri or Giuseppe Ciocci will take Caprile's place between the sticks, Zortea could be replaced at wing-back by Mattia Felici, and Luzumbo's spot up top may be given to Florinel Coman.

Meanwhile, former Napoli striker Leonardo Pavoletti is back from the suspension he served last weekend, but he's only likely to be utilised from the bench as he struggles with a knee issue.

Napoli vs Cagliari Odds

Napoli are unbeaten at home since December 8, winning four of their last five at the Diego Armando Maradona, and Conte's side are 1/6 to secure the Scudetto with a win on Friday. Cagliari are huge underdogs in Naples, with odds of 16/1 implying a 5.9% chance of success, while the draw is priced at 13/2.

Both teams to score is on offer at 11/8, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/2.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 13/8

Napoli's defence has been the key component of their Scudetto charge, with Gli Azzurri conceding a league-low 27 goals - seven fewer than the second stingiest side, Atalanta (34). Conte's charges have kept the most clean sheets (18) in Serie A, recording five shutouts in their last six games as they close in on the title.

However, scoring goals remains an issue. Napoli have struck just 57 times this term, less than Inter (77), Atalanta (76) and Lazio (61), and they blanked for a sixth time in the league under Conte last weekend.

Unsurprisingly, they feature in the top half of the under 2.5 goals table, with 54% of their Serie A contests ending with two or fewer strikes. Under 2.5 goals has been a winning selection in four of their last five matches, and three of their last six at home.

Cagliari (51%) aren't far off Napoli in that regard, although five of their last six games have gone over 2.5 goals.

Still, with so much on the line this Friday, I'm not predicting many in Naples.

Of course, things could change very quickly if Cagliari score, particularly early on.

However, Napoli look good for a clean sheet, which you could back at 3/5, but for more value, I'm tipping under 2.5 total goals. Conte's side are, generally, good at holding the lead, so if they go in front, don't expect them to go looking for a second and third.

Instead, they are likely to bunker in and back themselves to defend their way to a win.

Bet Builder - Yerry Mina (CAG) Total Shots 2+ & Total Shots on Target 1+ @ 7/1

I'm doubtful of Cagliari scoring on Friday, but that doesn't mean I don't think they will pose a few problems to Napoli.

Gli Azzurri won the reverse fixture 4-0 back in September, but that didn't stop Cagliari defender Yerry Mina from shooting four times. The 30-year-old, formerly of Everton, made himself a nuisance at set-pieces, recording three efforts in the first half and his fourth and final one, which forced Alex Meret into a save, in the 54th minute.

All four 'shots' came courtesy of Mina's head, and that's how he scored his goal against Venezia last Sunday, rising highest from a free-kick floated into the penalty area.

Remarkably, given that he scored twice in 14 Serie A appearances for Cagliari last season, that was Mina's first goal of the 2024/25 campaign, but he's made himself a threat at set-pieces throughout his 30 outings this term.

The Colombia international is averaging 0.9 shots and 0.3 shots on target per 90 minutes, and he drew a stop from Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer at San Siro last month.

Cagliari will surely be looking for Mina at every opportunity, and he could cause Napoli a few headaches on Friday.

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