Roma vs AC Milan Prediction: Another Cristante card against his former club

AC Milan suffered a 1-0 defeat to Bologna in Wednesday's Coppa Italia final at the Stadio Olimpico, but I Rossoneri must pick themselves up on Sunday (19:45) as they return to Rome to take on AS Roma in a Serie A six-pointer. I Giallorossi are currently sixth, three points ahead of Sergio Conceicao's side, but are only a point behind fourth-placed Juventus, with city rivals Lazio sat between the two teams in the race for Uefa Champions League football.

Below are my Roma vs AC Milan predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini (muscle) and Paulo Dybala (thigh) continue to miss out for Claudio Ranieri's side, with both players ruled out for the rest of the season.

The 'Tinkerman' could make a few changes following Monday's 2-1 defeat to Atalanta, with Eldor Shomurodov a player who could earn a promotion from the bench this weekend.

Football Odds

Milan loanee Alexis Saelemaekers will be desperate to start against his parent club, but Ranieri has suggested that without Dybala, the Belgian could struggle to get into the starting line-up, with Matias Soule having "adapted well to playing on that wing".

Mid-season signings Riccardo Sottil (muscle) and Warren Bondo (ankle) are set to miss out again for Milan, who are likely to make changes for their trip to the capital.

Santiago Gimenez, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Samuel Chukwueze and Kyle Walker could all be given the nod on Sunday, with Alejandro Jimenez, Youssouf Fofana and Luka Jovic among those who could drop down to the bench.

Tammy Abraham, on loan from Milan, is likely to be deployed as a second-half substitute.

Roma vs AC Milan Odds

Roma haven't beaten Milan in the league since October 2019, losing six and drawing four of their last 10 games in Serie A, yet I Giallorossi are 11/8 favourites on Sunday, implying a 42.1% probability. The visitors, meanwhile, are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to record a fourth straight victory on their travels.

The two teams played out a 1-1 draw in December's reverse fixture; another draw can be backed at 5/2, while a repeat of that scoreline is priced at 6/1.

Match Result - Roma @ 11/8

Roma's long unbeaten run in Serie A, spanning 19 games, came to an end in Bergamo on Monday as they lost to Atalanta. Bryan Cristante levelled the scores at 1-1 after Ademola Lookman put La Dea ahead in the ninth minute, but a 76th-minute strike from substitute Ibrahim Sulemana saw Ranieri's side fall to a first league defeat since December 15.

Still, Roma shouldn't lose too much confidence from that loss, considering it was at the home of the third-placed club.

At the Stadio Olimpico, I Giallorossi are unbeaten in Serie A since December 2, winning nine and drawing two of their 11 games, only dropping points to leaders Napoli (1-1) and Champions League hopefuls Juventus (1-1).

Roma have kept three clean sheets in their last four league games in the capital and now host a Milan side sure to have lost confidence following their midweek cup final defeat.

Milan only managed seven shots against Bologna on Wednesday and surrendered pretty meekly to I Rossoblu, who ended their 51-year wait for a trophy.

Attention now turns to league matters, with Milan frantically fighting to end the season in the top six, at least, which would secure European football again in 2024/25, although the best they can probably hope for now is the Uefa Europa League.

Milan have won their last three league games, as well as their previous three on the road in Serie A, but they've lost their last four away matches to top-10 sides, going down at Juventus (2-0), Torino, Bologna and Napoli (all 2-1).

Roma have been on a roll at the Olimpico, and I think they will be too strong for a downtrodden Milan side on Sunday in what will be Ranieri's final game in charge at the stadium.

Player to Receive a Card - Bryan Cristante (ROM) @ 5/2

Cristante has been booked seven times in 28 Serie A appearances (21 starts) this season, last going into the book in a 1-1 home draw with Juventus on April 6.

The 30-year-old may consider himself fortunate, however, to have evaded a caution on Monday as he made four fouls in Bergamo, where he scored Roma's only goal of the game.

Next up for the Italy international is a reunion with his former club, Milan, whom he joined in 2009 and spent five years with before moving to Benfica in Portugal.

Given the importance of this contest, I'm expecting a few cards to be shown on Sunday, and Cristante leads the Roma contenders to go into the book, in my opinion, as no player has received more yellows than him in the 2024/25 league campaign (level with Gianluca Mancini and Niccolo Pisilli).

Cristante was carded in his last Serie A outing against Milan, at San Siro in January 2024, and in his last home league appearance against I Rossoneri, he committed three fouls.

His most recent game against them in any competition was Roma's 1-0 victory in the first leg of their Uefa Europa League quarter-final tie in April last year, when he was booked for one of three fouls he committed.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.