Football Accumulator Tips: 4/1 Treble for Saturday’s European action

Jamie Pacheco had another 2/3 outcome last week but is determined to end the season with at least one more winner, so this could well be the week.  

Two Double Chance selections and four or more Real Sociedad corners are what he’s going for this week for his Football Accumulator Tips, so let’s see if he can pull it off.

Welcome to the 3-3-3 betting column. Why is it called that? Glad you asked.  It’s not a formation to play when you’ve had a man sent off but rather:

3- The number of different selections making up the acca.

3- The number of different (non-English) European Leagues the selections are taken from every week.

3- The minimum odds (3/1) or 4.0 if you prefer, that the acca will come to it every week.

And it really is as simple as that. The selections can be from any betting markets, as long as they meet the criteria set out above.  And to round things off, every week I’ll leave you with a cool (or at least I think so) bit of trivia involving one of the teams featured in the acca. Simples...

Current P and L: +10.254 pts

Selections two and three were winners only for the first one of the day to have let us down before they even got under way. There was the low-scoring win for Inter we predicted, and Benfica managed to win with over 2.5 goals in the game (it ended 2-1) but before that Toulouse and Rennes mustered 11 corners between them when we couldn’t afford for there to be more than eight. So, another near miss but that’s the game and as we know, we’re still in healthy profit for the season and will end that way whatever happens.  But let’s try and improve on that.

Empoli vs Parma   

Saturday, May 3 - 19:45

Selection: Back Parma or Draw on the Double Chance market @ 8/11   

This is the first of our two Double Chance selections for the week.

It pits Empoli, down in 19^th place and still believing they can escape the drop (hard but not impossible) against a 16^th place Parma side who some will feel have little to play for. But that’s not quite true. If they were to lose this one and other results went against them, they’d be sweating going into the last day of the season; so there are few reasons to think their motivational levels won’t be high.

The rationale in the odds – Empoli are just evens – appears to be based on the idea that Empoli absolutely have to win and therefore probably will. That’s somewhat nonsense for the reasons already explained as the game means plenty to Parma as well. But more than desire, it’s recent results that suggest we should take Empoli on.

Want to know when the last time was that Empoli won a Serie A game? I’ll tell you. December 8, 2024, against Verona. Since then, that’s 23 (!) matches in the league where they’ve failed to win, including losing all of their last three and five of their last seven.

You’re not going to win many games when you fail to score in five of your last six home games, are you?  Besides, all of the last three editions of this fixture in Empoli have ended in draws and it was also a draw (1-1) when they met earlier in the season in Parma, so that may well be how it ends up once again. Which would do us just fine.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Saturday, May 10 - 20:00

Selection: Over 3.5 away corners @ 4/5

Atletico have pretty much settled for a par-for-the-course third placed finish in La Liga and are up against a Sociedad side sitting in 11^th with little to play for.

But of far greater interest to us than the final score here is the number of corners Sociedad might get with the odds-compilers going 4/5 that Sociedad can get over 3.5 (four or more).

It’s a price we really like. It would have won in eight of their last nine trips on the road including matches where they got seven against each of Celta and Valencia.

Of course, Atletico are a better side than some of the ones they were getting plenty of corners against. But still. Atleti have conceded four or more corners in four of their last seven at home and we have faith Sociedad can make it five from eight.

Moreirense vs Estoril Praia

Sunday, May 11 - 18:00

Selection: Back Estoril or Draw on the Double Chance market @ 4/7  

It’s not often that the odds on the match result market look somewhat out of line but this could be a rare case of that being true. Moreirense look a bit on the short side at 13/10 when you consider a number of factors.

Estoril are six points and two places above them in the league. Moreirense, home and away, have won just two of their last 10. Out of 17 matches between these two dating back to 2004/5, Moreirense won just four, with five draws and eight (!) wins for Estoril. All stats that suggest that the home side look pretty skinny against one of the league’s most improved sides.

And an Estoril side who have proved to be tough to beat on the road of late. Including their 4-2 win at Estrela da Amadora in early January, they’ve played nine times away from home and won five times, drawing two and losing twice, one of which was at league leaders Sporting.

So, all in all it’s hard to justify that short price on the hosts and we’ll cover two of those bases on the match winner market by taking Estoril or the Draw at 4/7.

James’ Fun Fact

One of the few shining lights for Empoli this term has been on-loan forward Sebastiano Esposito, who belongs to Basel. He’s managed 10 goals in 34 games for a struggling side and is a player who is no stranger to traveling the world to ply his trade. Despite only being 22, his career has taken him to spells at Inter, Spal, Basel, Anderlecht, Sampdoria and now Empoli.

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Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...