Emanuel Navarrete vs Charly Suarez Predictions: ‘Cowboy’ takes his guns to town

WBO super featherweight king Emanuel Navarrete makes the fourth defence of his championship this Saturday, May 10 against Charly Suarez. The bout tops the bill at Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California. Sky Sports Action will screen the fight live.

Here are my Emanuel Navarrete vs. Charly Suarez predictions ahead of this world title tangle.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Charly Suarez Odds

The odds favour the champion. Navarrete comes in at 1/5. Suarez, the long overlooked underdog, is experienced enough to smirk at his 7/2 price. He’ll believe he can do this job. If neither of them reign supreme, the draw is 16/1.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Charly Suarez Fight Preview

Navarrete needed his last fight. A six-round stoppage of old rival Oscar Valdez, who had taken him the full 12 in late 2023, restored some of the champion’s lustre.

Navarrete was coming off the second loss in his decorated career, and the first in over a decade. Having won world titles in three weight divisions, Navarrete was narrowly beaten chasing a fourth by then-WBO lightweight champion Denis Berinchyk via split decision.

The air of invincibility had been punctured already, with Robson Conceicao boxing Navarrete to a majority draw in his previous outing. But the outright loss to Berinchyk, however close on the cards, brought ‘Vaquero’ back to earth with a thud. 

Lightweight is a tough nut to crack, with the current championship lineup stacked with outrageous talent. Berinchyk lost his title to Keyshawn Davis, who dominated him in ways Navarrete never could. The IBF calls Vasiliy Lomachenko its champion while the WBA can boast Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis. Meanwhile, Shakur Stevenson wears the WBC belt. 

Of the four champions, Lomachenko is the only one to have even lost a fight. Considering he is considered one of the greatest boxers of this era, it is clear that lightweight is an unhappy hunting ground

But there is plenty of time for Navarrete, still only 30, to add to his legacy. Rather than going up in weight to do it, ‘Cowboy’ should look closer to home. Another impressive win at the weekend could set him up for unification fights. 

Eduardo Nunez and Masanori Rikiishi meet in the coming months to resolve the IBF super featherweight vacancy. WBC champ O’Shaquie Foster can be got-at, while WBA kingpin Lamont Roach Jr. looks likely to continue pursuing a rematch with Davis up at lightweight. That could open the door for the elevation of WBA interim boss Albert Batyrgaziev to full champion.

These are fighters who Navarrete can thrive against. But first, Suarez stands in his way. The 36-year-old Olympian has gone 18-0 in his career, but this is his late-breakthrough into a world title fight.

While the location in which you do your fighting should not influence things, the fact Suarez had his first 13 bouts in his native Philippines likely has not helped his plea for recognition. A 12th-round TKO in Australia against unbeaten hometown boy Paul Fleming aided his cause, at least more than a two-round destruction of the ropey Defry Palulu did in China. 

But America is still viewed as the primary fistic proving ground, as much as Saudi Arabia and Britain challenge that notion. A string of three wins on US soil has finally given amateur standout Suarez the professional chance he needs.

It is a tall order. The ‘King’s Warrior’ steps into an amphitheatre that Navarrete has made his home away from home. The Mexican has fought three times at the Pechanga Arena in San Diego and is fast becoming part of the furniture. While Suarez is fighting frequently in the States now, he will feel every inch the outsider in this one.

You never truly know what an unbeaten fighter can bring until you see him take on the biggest challenges. Navarrete is far-and-away the finest boxer Suarez has ever come up against as a professional. One wonders if this chance would have come sooner if the Filipino truly belonged in this rarefied air.

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Emanuel Navarrete vs. Charly Suarez Prediction

Suarez does bring some of the physical and technical gifts necessary to make this a real fight. His 74-inch reach is atypical for a fighter this size.. 

But Suarez uses that reach to interesting effect. While he usually fights at distance, the 36-year-old is also effective at employing more of a pressure style.

Watch his knockout of Jorge Castaneda, where he cuts off the ring and then, just when the Texan thinks Suarez is coming in close, he unloads massive hooks from a half-step back. It is a fascinating use of superior reach, essentially going looking for his opponent but then stopping a foot or so from the inside.

If Navarrete can read this style and get the timing of it right, I think he has the tools to win this one. But I do think the champion will eat some leather in the process. Suarez is comfortable in all aspects of the scientific game. Where he might come unstuck is in the late rounds, with the weight of a prolific amateur career and advancing age on his body. 

If Navarrete is smart, he takes this one via late stoppage. I’m going to go for Navarrete by knockout at 1/1. Suarez has not traversed beyond the 10th in two years. I’m not sure he can do it against the best fighter he has faced in a pro ring.

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