Lazio vs Roma Prediction: Another cagey Derby della Capitale?

We've got a Derby della Capitale to look forward to in Italy on Sunday night (19:45, TNT Sports 1) as Rome rivals Lazio and AS Roma lock horns at the Stadio Olimpico.

Below are my Lazio vs Roma predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Defenders Patric (ankle) and Nuno Tavares (muscle), as well as on-loan Bayern Munich attacker Arijon Ibrahimovic (thigh), are all out injured for Lazio, who lost the first leg of their Uefa Europa League quarter-final tie 2-0 to Bodo/Glimt on Thursday.

Nicolo Rovella was suspended for that trip to Norway after receiving a red card in the second leg of I Biancocelesti's second-leg win against Viktoria Plzen (1-2) last month, but the Italian midfielder is available for selection again this weekend.

Matias Vecino and Matteo Guendouzi were Marco Baroni's midfield pair in midweek, but with Reda Belahyane, who started alongside Rovella in last Sunday's 1-0 victory over Atalanta in Bergamo, free to return after being ineligible against Glimt, we could see at least two changes to Thursday's line-up.

Football Odds

Left-back Luca Pellegrini, who missed out three days ago for the same reasons as Belahyane, is also under consideration for a start in place of Elseid Hysaj, who was taken off at half-time in Bodo.

The big injury news for Roma is that talisman Paulo Dybala (thigh) remains sidelined. The Argentine playmaker has missed I Giallorossi's last two matches and won't return to action against Lazio.

Right-back Saud Abdulhamid (thigh) is also in the treatment room, but Claudio Ranieri is boosted by the return of Alexis Saelemaekers from suspension. The Belgian missed last Sunday's 1-1 draw against Juventus but could return to the starting XI at the Stadio Olimpico this weekend in place of Zeki Celik.

Lazio vs Roma Odds

Lazio haven't beaten Roma in Serie A since March 2023 and arrive into Sunday's derby on the back of a harrowing defeat in Norway. Baroni's side are sixth, two points above Roma (seventh) in the table, yet are 15/8 underdogs for this game, implying a 34.8% probability of success. Roma (6/4), meanwhile, are in sensational league form, taking 37 points from the last 45 on offer (W11, D4), and have been handed the tag of favourites, with their chances of victory rated at 40%.

I Biancocelesti have drawn their last three league games at the Olimpico, while joint tenants Roma were held there by Juventus last weekend; a stalemate can be backed at 11/5 here.

Roma forward Artem Dovbyk, who has scored 11 Serie A goals since joining from La Liga outfit Girona last summer, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 2/1, followed by Lazio's nine-goal marksman Taty Castellanos (11/5).

Both Teams To Score - No @ 1/1

Lazio are third in Serie A's BTTS - Yes table, with 65% (20/31) of their games finishing with both teams finding the net, and it's been a winning selection in eight of their last 10 home games in the league.

However, it's failed to land in three of their last four games across all competitions, and BTTS - No has triumphed in six of Roma's last eight matches.

Moreover, the last seven derbies have seen at least one team fail to score - Lazio and Roma last struck against each other in the same game on September 26, 2021.

Another cagey contest could well unfold on Sunday with just two points separating the sides who are both in pursuit of a top-four finish that would guarantee entry into next season's Uefa Champions League.

Neither team will want to lose this weekend, particularly Roma, who are already behind, while Lazio may have one eye on Thursday's second leg against Glimt.

Bet Builder - Nicolo Rovella (LAZ) 2+ Shots, Kouadio 'Manu' Kone (ROM) 2+ Shots @ 11/2

After missing out in midweek, Rovella looks set to return to Lazio's midfield on Sunday, and I think he's worth backing to record at least two shots.

The 23-year-old is only averaging 0.9 shots per 90 minutes in Serie A this season but has registered at least one in his last five competition outings, shooting twice in his last home appearance (1-1 v Torino, March 31).

Meanwhile, against Roma in January, Rovella shot three times, seeing two efforts saved.

Up against the Italy international in the middle of the park will be his French counterpart Kouadio 'Manu' Kone, who is averaging 1.3 shots per 90 in Serie A and has taken two in three of his last five competition appearances.

The 23-year-old only shot once against Lazio in January, but that effort was in the third minute and on target.

Both Kone and Rovella look good for a couple of strikes on Sunday, and combined, offer up odds of 11/2 via Betfred's Bet Builder.

Offers

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