Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: A third H2H 1-0 of the season

Wellington Phoenix ended their long wait for a win last Saturday, beating Newcastle Jets 2-1 after eight games without a victory. The Australian A-League Men's play-offs are still a pipe dream for the New Zealanders, but a strong end to the season should at least be enough for them to overtake the Jets and Central Coast Mariners and finish ninth.

At Sky Stadium on Saturday (06:00, TNT Sports 1), Giancarlo Italiano's side host Melbourne Victory, who weren't in action last weekend and fell to fifth following Western Sydney Wanderers' 1-1 draw at Auckland FC. Below are my Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Wellington Phoenix midfielder Francisco 'Chico' Geraldes recently suffered a season-ending knee injury, missing the first of his side's last five games against the Jets.

Stefan Colakovski (knee) and Alby Kelly-Heald (shoulder) are also in the Nix's treatment room.

Football Odds

Italiano may opt to name an unchanged starting XI following last week's success in Newcastle. Kosta Barbarouses and Kazuki Nagasawa were both on target for the Nix, who welcomed skipper Alex Rufer back from suspension at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Four-goal Brazilian forward Clarismario Santos Rodrigues (unspecified) will miss out again for Melbourne Victory this weekend, but Ryan Teague is back from the injury that caused him to miss out in his side's last game, a 5-3 win over Adelaide United on March 29.

Adama Traore wasn't in the squad for that win against the Reds but has been named in Arthur Diles' extended list for this weekend's trip to Wellington.

Greek striker Nikos Vergos only came off the bench in the 85th minute against Adelaide but bagged a brace in his first five minutes on the pitch. He could earn a start on Saturday over veteran forward Bruno Fornaroli.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Wellington beat Victory 1-0 at Allianz Stadium (Sydney) in November and are 4/1 to win at home this weekend. Those odds imply a probability of 20%, while the visitors are 4/7, or a 63.6% chance, to triumph on their travels for the first time since February 1.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score - a winning selection in the Nix's last four matches - at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Fornaroli (6/5) and Vergos (5/4) head the anytime goalscorer market, with Barbarouses (7/4) first up for the hosts.

Double Chance & Over/Under +2.5 Goals - Draw or Melbourne Victory & Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/4

Neither the Nix nor Victory are high-scoring sides, relative to their positions in the league.

Only Perth Glory (16) have scored fewer ALM goals this season than Wellington (23), who have found the net just eight times at home. They've only conceded 12 strikes at Sky Stadium, though, meaning the ground has seen an average of just two goals per game in 2024/25.

Victory, meanwhile, have scored 38 league goals, ranking them as the seventh-lowest scorers but only Melbourne City (20) and Auckland FC (21) have conceded fewer times than MVC (30).

Diles' side have been particularly profligate on their travels, scoring just 13 goals in 11 games - only Perth Glory (nine) have struck fewer goals away from home.

Under 2.5 goals has only landed in one of Victory's last five matches and two of Wellington's last five, but the two sides have already exchanged a couple of 1-0 scorelines this season, and the last seven meetings between them have seen two or fewer goals in regulation time.

Correct Score - Melbourne Victory 0-1 @ 7/1

I'm taking things a step further with my second selection and backing Victory to win 1-0 in Wellington.

The last three regular-season games between the two teams have ended in a single-goal success for one; the Nix won the first two 1-0, beating Victory 1-0 at home in March 2024 and 1-0 in Sydney for last November's Unite Round.

MVC took the spoils in February, though, with Vergos scoring the only goal of the game at AAMI Park.

The Nix have scored in their last four games but managed just a single strike in the first two and have blanked in three of their last five home matches.

Italiano's side showed tremendous spirit in Newcastle last weekend, taking a 2-0 lead into the interval and conceding just once in the second half to claim a 2-1 win, but the reality is that they are playing for very little right now, while their opponents are looking to consolidate their play-off position and push for the top two.

Victory can be stubborn defensively when required, and I think they will show that side to their game this weekend and claim back-to-back 1-0 wins against Wellington.

Offers

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