US Horse Racing Tips: Paul picks three from across the pond

Our US Racing expert Paul Quigley has taken a look at all the races on offer across the pond on Saturday to pick out his best bets.

Below you can find his US Racing tips for Saturday, April 5 which come from Tampa Bay Downs and Aqueduct.

It's last chance saloon for many three year olds to book their places in The Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby sees two of the ante post favourites for Churchill Downs in the line up. Journalism and Citizen Bul have already amassed enough qualifying points to make the final field. Not so last time maiden winner Baeza. He has to win to ensure his place. The race is due off after midnight. For the preview below, I have picked some earlier races from Aqueduct and Tampa. One of them The Wood Memorial (Grade 2), may produce a live Kentucky Derby outsider.    

20:58 Tampa Bay Downs - Rocket Dragon (5) @ SP

Jetaros (8) is the local standard setter at the level and on the footing. He's been placed in all three starts over course and distance at this meet. In the latest, he was a fine second, a length ahead of True Spun (2) with Big Z Og (4) a below par fifth. A repeat of any of his recent efforts is likely to see him go close. Like him, Big Z Og (4) has worked well in preparation for this race. He has been gelded since his last run and may run back to his playable Laurel form.     

Rocket Dragon (5) has never raced on the turf before. He has form on Tapeta suggesting he will handle the footing. The four year old has ran well in his last two starts. They were claimers but were arguably as strong as this race. In the first, all the runners who raced since ran big next time. His trainer has hit form in recent weeks.  

Breezey Bella (6) and Ee Yah (7) have dangerous early speed. The first named is lightly raced and may be capable of better. Ee Yah (7) had a better field than this one in trouble for a long way last month. The well drawn Summer Bee (1) has won back to back claimers on the dirt. If he can transfer that improvement getting back on the turf, he can outrun his odds.

22:38 Aqueduct - Crupi (4) @ SP

The local standard setter is Masmak (8). As if often the case, he has looked much improved since joining trainer Richard Dutrow. That progression culminated in an allowance optional claiming  victory over nine furlongs last month. In that race, he outfinished Mama's Gold (8) by three lengths with Classic Catch (2) back in third. He runs as if this mile and a quarter distance will suit. The four year old does meet runners coming out of much better races. He may be up to the task.  

Batten Down (3) is always a player when not facing the best around. He won a Grade 3 and a $250,000 stake last year. The four year old was a bit disappointing on his return in a Grade 3 at The Fair Grounds. He is well up to winning this. He’s best when bossing things form the outset and there is other speed in here. Maybe the late running Crupi (4) will ‘trip out’ better. He is a bit pace dependent. The race flow didn’t suit in a Grade 3 at Oaklawn in February. His best efforts last year came over extended trips. That includes a Grade 2 win over today’s distance. With the prospect of speed to chase down, he may be the answer. 

Curbstone (5) outfinished the pacesetting Phileas Fogg (6) with Film Star (1) in an allowance event over a furlong shorter than today’s in January. The winner has form over further than today. Film Star (1) has worked well since.

23:10 Aqueduct - Hill Road (6) @ SP

There is a nice mixture of runners with strong local stakes form and a few dangerous new faces. Captain Cook (2) is two for two since moving to trainer Richard Dutrow. In February, he was a clear cut winner of a stake over course and distance with the late running Omaha Omaha (12) well back in third. He has been kept fresh for this race. He's a more likely stayer than Sand Devil (5). The New York bred lost his unbeaten record when second in a Grade 3 here over a mile last month. My Mitole (4) finished almost three lengths behind him. He may be part of a crowded front end.       

Bob Baffert has shipped Rodriguez (1) from California for this race. He's been a tad disappointing in his last two starts. In fairness, he's ran into two of The Kentucky Derby ante post favourites. His best effort came when given his head and sent for the lead. Veteran jockey Mike Smith may have no choice from his rail draw to gun him. He is very dangerous if he can clear the other speed.  

If the early fractions are hot and contested, Hill Road (6) will be one of the beneficiaries. The former Irish trained colt ran well against the race flow in The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He can be forgiven his never dangerous third in The Grade 3 Tampa Derby on his comeback. There was no pace to chase down and his trainer Chad Brown had indicated he was well short of peak fitness. His work outs since his return have improved. He may be worth siding with at a decent price.            

There are other lightly raced likely improvers in here. Passion Rules (8) has a similar profile and trainer as the runner who beat Sand Devil (5) last time. He is unbeaten in three career starts for Brad Cox. Last month, he upset a well regarded three year old at Oaklawn. Grande (7) and Statesman (11) are progressive types who are on hat-tricks. The pair may be up to stakes standard. The first name is unbeaten and may get a nice trip just off the pacesetters. Statesman (11) meets much better than he beat at Tampa. He looks the type to improve for more ground and/or pace to chase down. Tiger Twenty Four (3) is improving, breaking his maiden by open lengths at Gulfstream last month.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...