Real Madrid vs Leganes Prediction: Mbappe to have 3+ Shots on Target

It is fair to say that the market suggests that Real Madrid should win this match against Leganes on Saturday evening. LaLigaTV is the place to watch from 20:00 for those looking to watch Los Blancos.

Mark Sochon as per usual is in situ with the Betfred Insights look at this one. He's picked out two prop bets at odds-against to provide some betting value as he puts together his match preview and Real Madrid vs Leganes Predictions...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid return from the international break with ground to make up on Barcelona at the top of La Liga. A home game against struggling Leganés is a game they should win with little drama, although the visitors do already have a couple of major scalps to their name this season. 

Borja Jiménez's side won 1-0 away to Barça in December, while they defeated Atlético Madrid by the same margin at Butarque the following month. They've had less luck against Los Blancos though, suffering league and cup defeats against Carlo Ancelotti's side already this season. 

With a three-point deficit to make up on Barcelona, and almost certainly the inferior head-to-head record given they lost the first Clásico of the season by a 4-0 margin, nothing short of a victory will do for Real Madrid here. 

They've not been in great league form, with only three wins from their last seven outings in the Spanish top flight. Even their last two victories have come in highly unconvincing fashion, with Real Madrid seeing off Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal by 2-1 margins, but having just 19 shots across those two games, whilst allowing their opponents to have a combined tally of 43. 

Those numbers are hard to comprehend on many levels, and there is a clear sense now that this is simply not a convincing Real Madrid side, with some obvious flaws at the back, and balance issues further up the pitch. 

Their current plight can perhaps best be summed up by the fact that the injury absence of Dani Ceballos, for so many years only a very peripheral figure at the Bernabéu, currently feels like a major problem. 

Yet, despite all that, Real Madrid still have more than enough individual quality to defeat any opponent on any given day. The fact they are still alive and fighting in three competitions is testament to that, and with three winnable home games over the next eight days, Ancelotti's side do have a bit more time to find some rhythm ahead of the really crunch games in April and May. 

They were comfortable 3-0 winners at Butarque in the reverse fixture against Leganés in La Liga, and their near neighbours will make the short trip across the Spanish capital more in hope than expectation. 

Leganés are currently in 18th place having slipped into the relegation zone following a 3-2 home defeat against Real Betis last time out. They were two goals ahead in that game thanks to a brace from Dani Raba, but a second half comeback saw the Andalusians turn the game on its head and leave with all the points. 

With only three points currently separating the teams in 15th and 19th places, it's really tight at the bottom of La Liga and this match won't make or break the season for Leganés. 

We've already seen them upset the big boys, only to continue to struggle in subsequent matches. Since they hosted Los Blancos back in November, Leganés have only won one other league game aside from their shock wins over Barça and Atleti, and that was the South Madrid derby against Getafe which was settled by a spectacular overhead kick from Diego García at the beginning of this month. 

Those results do suggest that they often rise to the big occasion, although they hardly played sparkling football in any of those victories, and a lack of quality in midfield and attack may ultimately be their downfall this season. 

Team News: 

Real Madrid are missing five players due to injury, with Ceballos and Ferland Mendy on the sidelines, along with long-term absentees Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal. Thibaut Courtois is also out, so Andriy Lunin will get the nod in goal. 

Los Blancos are next in action on Tuesday in the Copa del Rey semi-final second leg against Real Sociedad. That shouldn't have a major impact on Ancelotti's team selection for this game though, with most of his South American international contingent still expected to start. 

As for Leganés, they make the 12-mile trip sweating over the fitness of key midfielder  

Yvan Neyou. They are also missing Borna Barisic and Enric Franquesa to long-term injuries. 

Their young boss may consider a switch to a back five for this game, with their main attacking threat likely to come from Raba who has scored four goals in his last five games. 

Real Madrid vs Leganes Odds

Real Madrid are the 1/7 favourites to win this match. You can back the Draw at 7/1, while Leganés are priced at 16/1 to complete an unlikely hat-trick of league victories over Spain's "big three" this season. 

If you're expecting Los Blancos to move on from their recent struggles with a convincing victory, you can back Real Madrid -2.00 Handicap at 23/20. The home team are also available at 9/10 to win the game to nil, while you can back Real Madrid and Over 3.5 goals at 21/20. 

Alternatively, Leganés or Draw is priced at 4/1 in the Double Chance market. You can back the visitors to score over 0.5 goals at 10/11, while they are priced at 9/2 to win either half. 

Real Madrid should have all their big hitters on the pitch in attack. Kylian Mbappé is in good form and he's available at 12/5 to score first and 8/15 to score anytime. 

You can also back Vinícius Júnior to score anytime at 19/20. In the same market, Jude Bellingham is on offer at 11/8, while Rodrygo is priced at 6/4. 

Bet 1 - Kylian Mbappé 3+ shots on target @ 21/20 

Increasingly, this feels like a Real Madrid side that is specifically designed to provide service for Mbappé, even if that comes at the expense of their other attacking talents. 

That has certainly helped to get more out of the Frenchman in the second half of the season, but he's also just looking much more confident in everything he's doing in the final third of the pitch. 

With 4.3 shots per game on average, he's still the player who is having the most attempts in La Liga and he has been more accurate than was the case earlier in the campaign. 

He also registered seven shots on target for France in the international break, and I'm backing Kylian Mbappé 3+ shots on target at 21/20 here

Bet 2 - Leganés 8+ shots @ 11/10 

While Leganés are far from the greatest attacking force in La Liga, they have to take some encouragement from what we've seen from Real Madrid in recent weeks. 

Opposing teams have found a way to play through them and dominate periods of the game, with Los Blancos booed by their own fans in the latter stages of their most recent home fixture against Rayo Vallecano, as the underdogs enjoyed spells of sustained pressure. 

Real Madrid had to face 20 shots in that match to hold on for the win, while Villarreal had 23 attempts against the defending champions a fortnight ago. Those numbers alone suggest there could be value in backing Leganés 8+ shots at 11/10 here.