South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Prediction: Apprentice to outdo master

Let’s not pull any punches, the South Sydney Rabbitohs were awful in 2024. But the legendary Wayne Bennett returns to the club for a second spell in charge ahead of Friday’s NRL Premiership round one game against the Dolphins at CommBank Stadium (09:00 GMT, 20:00 local - live on Sky Sports Main Event).

The re-appointment of the 75-year-old head coach, who was previously with the Dolphins, is the big change for a Rabbitohs outfit who finished second-bottom on the ladder last season. Here are my South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Dolphins predictions, aided and abetted by the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Odds

The bookies have the master overcoming his apprentice, with the Rabbitohs 5/6 to make Kristian Woolf’s first night as Dolphins head coach a losing one. That implies a 54.5% chance of the Bunnies collecting the two points.

Given the dreadful 2024 experienced by the Rabbitohs, which featured just one win in 17 matches either side of a six-out-of-seven spell in mid-season, the 21/20 on offer for the Dolphins to get over the top looks appealing.

The draw is a relatively narrow 16/1, perhaps reflecting just how close the oddsmakers have this one. That is backed up by the marker placed in the two-way handicap market, with a 1.5-point start afforded the 10/11 Dolphins against the 5/6 Rabbitohs.

Team News

Probably the biggest news surrounding this game is the venue change, with Cyclone Alfred expected to cause havoc in Brisbane around what would have been kick-off time at Suncorp Stadium. So it is on home territory that Bennett faces his former club.

On the field, Campbell Graham has recovered from a hand injury quicker than expected so has been named at centre, and Junior Tatola is back after a foot problem.

Latrell Mitchell’s hamstring issue means Jye Gray gets the nod at full-back, while former St Helens half Lewis Dodd is banned after an offence in the Pre-Season Challenge competition.

Lachlan Hubner is slated to start at 13 against his former employers.

Rugby League Odds

The Dolphins are without three key players due to concerns for their families amid Cyclone Alfred. Kodi Nikorima, Kenny Bromwich and Mark Nicholls all opted to stay in Queensland with their loved ones despite being named to make the trip to Sydney.

Woolf has drafted Josh Kerr and Sean O’Sullivan into the matchday 17, with Bromwich’s slot as 18th player taken by Oryn Keeley. Meanwhile, Tom Gilbert returns at loose forward and takes over the captaincy.

Jack Bostock is out with a knee injury, so the reigning Dally M Rookie of the Year is replaced by Junior Tupou. Star man Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow lines up as expected at full-back.

Dolphins by 1-12 points @ 9/4

My gut sets me in opposition with the Betfred traders here. While I expect the Bennett effect to be very real at the Rabbitohs, I don’t know whether that happens from day one.

The coaching king didn’t win eight Premierships by accident, and while he is now 15 years removed from his last title he certainly still carries that sprinkle of stardust. But he has a big, old job on to get the Bunnies back competing.

That is why I think they’ll be edged out by the Dolphins on Friday, with Latrell Mitchell’s absence among the reasons I don’t have the Rabbitohs to win. The 9/4 available about a Dolphins win is just too eye-catching.

Over 48.5 total points @ 13/8

Bennett doesn’t do boring normally. Neither does Woolf. While together at the Dolphins, where Woolf was the former England coach’s number two, 22 of 48 matches (45.8%) involved 49 or more points.

And even before then, 13 of the last 18 (72.2%) in Bennett’s previous Rabbitohs spell came within the Over 48.5 range, while potent attacking often offset by vulnerable D.

To that end, I’m behind a high-scoring game in this one. Two new regimes mean a pair of clubs still finding their way to putting structures in place. So I’ve got an offence-heavy match in this one and am willing to put my chips in the higher alternative bracket to claim the more user-friendly 13/8 at an implied 38.1%.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.