India vs Australia Prediction: Aussie part-time spinners provide Betting Value

India and Australia will contest the first of the semi-finals in Dubai on Tuesday, start time 09:00, live on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco thinks India will win but better bets lie in the Australia top bat and bowler markets. You can check out his India vs Australia Predictions for the ICC Champions Trophy semi-final below...

India 

At the change of innings against New Zealand, it seemed like India had finally met their match on a tricky, tacky surface in Dubai.  Shreyas Iyer (79), Axar Patel (42) and Hardik Panya (45) got them to 249 and that certainly looked chaseable.  

But not only was the wicket trickier and tackier than we first thought but India bowled beautifully. Arun Chakravarthy, in his first match in this competition, took 5-24 with the other three (!) spinners giving him good support. Chakravarthy will obviously keep his place for this one after that performance.  

So, India have now also ticked the box of defending a par (or thereabouts) total and that will give them more confidence, as if any was needed.  

Possible XI:   Sharma, Gill, Kohli, Iyer, Axar, Rahul, Pandya, Jadeja, Chakravarthy, Shami, Yadav.  

Australia  

Australia have made the semis after having only one completed match. Good thing they won it then.  

To be fair, they would have chased Afghanistan's score easily on Friday, either if the full match had been played or if it had gone down to DLS.  

In their advantage is their dogged spirit and the presence of three or four match-winners in the side such as Travis Head, Adam Zampa and Glenn Maxwell.  

What isn't in their advantage is that of the XI they've played so far only Zampa is a world-class spinner. Maxwell, Marnus Labuschagne and Matt Short can all do a job with the ball, but they certainly can't do what India's spinners did to New Zealand on Sunday.  

Possible XI: Head, Short, Smith, Labuschagne, Inglis, Carey, Maxwell, Dwarshius, Ellis, Zampa, Johnson.  

Pitch and conditions

There's no excuse for us not knowing what to expect at Dubai. And there's certainly no excuse for India not knowing what to expect at Dubai. After all, they handpicked the venue where they wanted to play all their games.  

250 batting first and you're in business; 200 and you're halfway there to winning the match. But if Australia bat first, and score 260 or so, that could well be chaseable because Australia don't have India's spin resources.   

India may decide the blueprint of batting first may serve them well again should they win the toss. 

India vs Australia Odds

Our gamble on the Kiwis at 7/4 didn't come off but the fact they were favourites at the break in live betting suggests it was a decent wager in the first place.  

Interestingly, Australia at 6/4 (implied probability of 40%) are a shorter price than New Zealand were, suggesting the odds-compilers think the Aussies are a better side than the Kiwis. I'm not sure they are.  

So, the fact the price is as bit shorter puts us off completely but even if it was a bit bigger, Australia will have to play in conditions they haven't played in yet, against a side with seemingly no flaws. You'll see far worse bets this week than the 8/15 on India.  

Australia Top Bowler  

Australia may decide to bring in spinner Tanvir Sangha in for this one, possibly at the expense of Spencer Johnson. But they may not, if they deem him a bit too inexperienced for a game like this.  

If Sangha doesn't play, the excellent Zampa (13/5) will be their chief threat. But they're going to have to find plenty of overs of spins from the all-rounders and Maxwell (7/1) and Labuschagne (14/1) certainly come into the equation.  

Yes, I know we said that they probably wouldn't be a match for India's spinners. But they don't need to be. They just need to be Aussie top bowler and two wickets for either of those will certainly have them in serious contention at seriously big prices.  

Australia Top Batsman  

Travis Head was going ballistic when the rain came in that game against Afghanistan and his 59 of 40 could well have ended up being 100 off 60 if he kept going.  

Perhaps he's not the best player of spin in the side with Smith and Carey arguably better. But then again, as an opener, he may face 10 overs of pace to begin with and may capitalise on them. Getting to 50 in quick time before the spinners do their thing, could well be enough.