Barrow vs Carlisle Prediction: Home win on derby day in Cumbria?

We’ve got a Cumbrian derby to look forward to in League 2 tonight as Barrow welcome Carlisle United to Holker Street. The hosts sit 18th heading into this clash, 11 points clear of danger, with the visitors currently rock-bottom and at serious risk of losing their EFL status. 

This one kicks off at 20:00 on Sky Sports Football, as Andy Whing’s men look to beat their rivals in a league match for the first time in 65 years. You can find my Barrow vs Carlisle prediction down below. 

Team News

After a decent run of form, Barrow were hammered 3-0 by Crewe Alexandra last time out, so changes may be made by new boss Whing, where possible. The gaffer only named six substitutes in that fixture, and one of those, David Worrall, has since joined Kidderminster Harriers on loan. 

Conor Mahoney was given a start out wide and could retain his place in the XI, while Ben Whitfield has done well since rejoining the club in January and should start in attack. Aaron Pressley, son of former EFL manager Steven, is under pressure to keep hold of his place, with Tyler Smith another decent option in the final third. Kian Spence should return in midfield having been benched on Saturday, while Charlie Kirk could be back in the matchday squad. 

For Carlisle, Callum Guy and Archie Davies have both returned from injury and could provide a welcome boost to Mark Hughes. They could both start here having got some minutes against Gillingham last time out, it’s not all good news for the former Manchester City boss, as Josh Williams has suffered a hamstring injury. He joins Charlie Wyke, Jordan Jones and Georgie Kelly on the sidelines.

Barrow vs Carlisle Odds

Barrow are priced at 6/5 to win this game, and they’ve been decent in front of their home fans having won eight wins out of 16 this term. Carlisle can be backed at 2/1 but they have the third-worst away record in the division, with just three wins to their name. A draw is 12/5, which may be worth considering given that Blues beat Barrow 1-0 back in August. 

Over 2.5 goals has only been a winning pick in 38% of Barrow’s games this term and that can be backed at 6/5, while BTTS is 10/11. Smith is the favourite to open the scoring at 11/2, having scored twice since arriving from Bradford on loan in January. 

Barrow to win @ 5/4

This feels like a fairly straightforward pick when you take the emotion of the derby away from the fixture. Barrow’s home form has been really good this term, as they’ve won eight, drawn four and lost four in front of their own fans. Since Whing arrived last month, they’ve won three out of four at home, but lost all of their away fixtures, so it truly is their home form that will keep them in this division. 

Carlisle meanwhile look set for the drop, but Hughes has ended a run of four consecutive defeats with back-to-back 0-0 draws. They sit five points from safety, so survival isn’t impossible, but they need to start picking up wins. 

Football Odds

Now, Barrow’s record against Carlisle is historically terrible. Fun fact for you, they haven’t beaten them in the league since before the region of Cumbria even existed. Cumbria was created in 1974, while Barrow’s last league win came in 1960. But I think they can put things right here, with Whing wanting to make his own history. 

"People have been telling me how bad our record is, how we never beat them and how big the game is," he said.

"But where we both are in the league, we're really underachieving. That makes it a big game in itself.

"Add to that the locality and what the fans want and expect, we want to turn the stats around and put them in our favour."

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 

Another pick I’m fairly confident about. I’ve just mentioned that Carlisle have recorded back-to-back 0-0 draws, and fixing up their shoddy defence has been the first port of call for Hughes. They are now trying to do the basics right in order to get out of danger, and that means keeping things simple at the back.

Only 13 of Carlisle’s 32 games have seen over 2.5 goals, while that figure is even lower for Barrow, who have only seen over 2.5 goals in 12 of their 32 fixtures. These two may produce fireworks and fights, but I can’t see them producing many goals. Under 2.5 is my second selection. 

Offers

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