Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley Predictions: The Doncaster Rocky takes on the untouchable

Rocky is made real on Saturday, February 22 as electrician-by-day Josh Padley challenges Shakur Stevenson for the WBC lightweight championship. The Brit steps in as a late-replacement for the ill Floyd Schofield, rescuing Stevenson’s position on The Last Crescendo card from the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh. Sky Sports Box Office, TNT Sports Box Office and DAZN PPV will televise.

Here are my Stevenson vs Padley predictions ahead of this David vs Goliath battle.

Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley Odds

The champ walks in as the overwhelming favourite here at 1/33. While Stevenson occupies the Apollo Creed role, our resident Rocky Balboa is priced at 10/1. The stalemate is available at 33/1.

Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley Fight Preview

Stevenson is one of many fighters dubbed with the “next Floyd Mayweather” tag. It is easy to see why. Defensively-astute, the WBC champion is an artist more than he is a slugger. His refined brushstrokes aren’t for everyone, but for those in the know there is genius on the canvas.

That artisanal quality was already expected to be too much for Floyd Schofield. If you ask the champion, that is exactly why his original opponent pulled out. But we must take Schofield at face value and assume illness was the legitimate reason for his withdrawal until proven otherwise.

This card, cursed with too much quality in the end, has lost IBF heavyweight champion Daniel Dubois already. But credit where it is due, Martin Bakole stepped into that void to fight Joseph Parker while Josh Padley comes in here for an unexpected shot at the world crown.

Padley’s narrative is straight out of the “non-league striker scores a goal in the third round of the FA Cup against Man City” playbook. An electrician by trade, he is also a fast-rising prospect on the domestic lightweight scene. I’ll leave the “electrifying” puns for other writers, this kid can fight.

Padley proved that last time out, shocking unbeaten Mark Chamberlain at Wembley Stadium on the Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois card. What was intended to be Chamberlain’s ascension in front of the eyes of the world ended with an upset. It is that sort of miracle that Padley looks to bring about once more.

In truth, boxing accommodates a Rocky story far less than you’d think. Chuck Wepner might have inspired a franchise when he knocked down Muhammad Ali, but the real-life ‘Bayonne Bleeder’ didn’t then go on to reign as the heavyweight champion while slapping bionic Russians and Mr T.

No, boxing doles out reality checks far more often than it does Cinderella stories. The greatest achievement here is that Padley secured the shot and it will likely remain that way. Full credit to the kid for risking it all for a tilt at title glory against one of the pound-for-pound best. Too many boxers are fervently protective of that ‘0’ on their record. 

But Padley seems to understand that even bravery in defeat will do more for his career than further wins over wins over Central Area title fodder. Chamberlain was the first big domestic name ‘Paddy’ had faced, with many of his wins coming over journeymen and novices. 14-0 Jimmy First was his biggest scalp before the Wembley shock. Now he takes on Stevenson on the biggest night of his life.

Complacency does not seem to exist in the vocabulary of Stevenson. Across three weight divisions, against foes touted or unheralded, the New Jersey-born stylist has always prevailed. The only thing his unblemished 22-0 record is short of is knockouts. Stevenson has stopped just 10 of his victims, but you best believe he will aim to impress here by adding an 11th.

That is what Padley is up against. Not only one of the best fighters on the planet, but one that knows the onus is on him. Padley is in a win-win situation here. It is a free hit considering his dearth of world-class experience. But Stevenson has to do well. He has no choice. The world expects a performance. Can the Doncaster Rocky stop him from providing one?

Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley Full Card

Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol

Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole

Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley

Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz

Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Israil Madrimov

Zhilei Zhang vs Agit Kabayel

Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith

Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley Prediction

I don’t think I’m going to ruffle many feathers by going for Stevenson here. I think he will get a rare stoppage too. Padley is brave and I admire him deeply for taking this fight on. But he has never been in with anyone even approaching the quality Shakur has.

I like the Price Boost on offer here. Stevenson in rounds 7-9 was 11/4 and is now available at 7/2. That’s my tip for this one, Stevenson to get it done in rounds 7-9.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.