Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction: Gunners to win but it may not be enough

Arsenal have a mountain to climb in their Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Newcastle United, as the Gunners travel to St James' Park on Wednesday (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) 2-0 down on aggregate. They do, however, head here in high spirits, following their 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City on Sunday in the Premier League.

The hosts were beaten 2-1 at home to Fulham last time out and have now suffered two defeats on the bounce on Tyneside. Read on for my Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Newcastle United vs Arsenal Odds

Newcastle have won four of their last six home matches in all competitions, and are valued at 11/5 to win this match in 90 minutes. Arsenal's recent FA Cup appearance saw them draw with Manchester United in regulation time, and the stalemate is on offer at 11/4.

The Gunners have won two games on the spin heading into this second leg, and their high-scoring victory over City has fired a warning shot to the Magpies. They are 23/20 (which has an implied probability of 46.5%) to triumph in normal time.

Both teams to score has surprisingly featured just once in the past 14 meetings between these two teams in all competitions. However, it has been a winning selection in Newcastle's last three appearances, so I think BTTS is worth backing on this occasion at 4/6 (60%).

Newcastle striker Alexander Isak has scored in four of his previous six outings at St James' Park, and opened the scoring against Arsenal in the first leg. He is the 11/8 favourite to score anytime on Wednesday.

Football Odds

Team News

The Magpies are without the services of Jamaal Lascelles (ACL) and Harvey Barnes (muscle) for this clash due to injury. Forward Callum Wilson has been out with a hamstring problem for eight weeks but he might have a slim chance of making the squad to face the Gunners after returning to training.

On Wilson, Newcastle boss Eddie Howe said: "There is a chance, we have another training session to get through so we will see. Let’s get through training before we make a decision."

Joelinton is considered a doubt for this match, however, after the midfielder was withdrawn against Fulham with an issue. He was seen wearing a brace after the game which has since come off, but Howe thinks there is a chance the Brazilian could miss out.

Bruno Guimaraes is available for selection following his suspension during the first leg. He looks a shoo-in to go straight back into the midfield.

Nick Pope, having recovered from a knee injury, has had to watch Martin Dubravka in goal for the past two matches, and Howe may consider restoring his first-choice shot-stopper to the lineup.

Arsenal are still dealing with injuries of their own in Gabriel Jesus (ACL), Bukayo Saka (hamstring) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee). Ben White is reportedly not too far away from overcoming a knee problem of his own, but this contest has appears to be too soon for the defender.

Riccardo Calafiori will offer competition to youngster Myles Lewis-Skelly at left-back, but that will be tough after the latter's impressive display against City, which included his first-ever senior goal.

Fellow young talent, Ethan Nwaneri, who came off the bench to score at the weekend, has reason to push for a starting place having netted three goals already in the Carabao Cup this campaign.

Arsenal to win (in 90 mins) @ 23/20

Arsenal were second-best in every department against Newcastle in the first leg but they have been improving in the matches they've played since. The Magpies on the other hand, have suffered some setbacks which have surprisingly come at home.

Howe's squad is looking quite thin at the moment and fans were left disappointed that there were no fresh recruits in the winter transfer window, while the likes of Miguel Almiron and Lloyd Kelly departed.

Then there are the injuries they are having to contend with, while not many, are leading to an over-reliance on many of the first-team regulars, which has likely contributed to recent defeats against Fulham and AFC Bournemouth.

Arsenal have squad depth issues of their own but fresh from that triumphant result against Man City, they will have their players believing they can pull themselves back into this semi-final. They currently look well-oiled and they will hope to capitalise on Newcastle's recent frailties at SJP.

It might not be enough to win the tie, but I'm confident the Gunners will prevail in regulation time.

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5

My second selection is for there to be over 2.5 goals on Wednesday, and recent matches suggest goals are to be expected. Arsenal fired five past City on Sunday and this selection has now struck in three of their past four outings in the Premier League, which have all been played since the first-leg defeat.

Additionally, there have been at least three goals scored in the five matches across all competitions in which Newcastle have featured since that 2-0 win at the Emirates. Some games their attackers have been potent and others their defence has been easily breached.

That concoction has me thinking that we could be in for an entertaining tussle in Newcastle, and a goal for the home team may just be enough to drag themselves over the line.

Offers

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