Benfica vs Barcelona Prediction: The draw at 3/1 stands out as a value bet

Another huge match in the Champions League with Benfica hosting Barcelona in Lisbon as we reach the business end of the Group Stages. TNT Sports 1 from 20:00 on Tuesday is where you'll need to be to watch this one in the UK.

Jamie Pacheco thinks it could be a share of the spoils when it comes to the match itself, but Benfica are excellent value to get the most cards here. Check out his full preview along with his Benfica vs Barcelona Predictions right here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Benfica 

15th place in the new-look Champions League table means Benfica are very much still in when it comes to the possibility of making the next round, but there's not much room for error now if they want to qualify for the Play-offs as a seeded team.  

Last time out they could only manage a goalless draw at home to Bologna, who were really struggling going into the match, so they'll see that as a missed opportunity.  

At least they come into this match in good form. Last weekend they won the League Cup on penalties against Sporting, and that's a competition that's taken very seriously in Portugal, so that win will have given them confidence, especially given who it was against, not to mention an early trophy. 

The great Angel Di Maria missed this weekend's win in the league-beating Famalicao 4-0 – with injury but should play here, especially considering the importance of this match. Youngster Andreas Schjelderup did extremely well in covering for the veteran Argentine but will probably have to settle for a place on the bench.  

Possible XI:  Trubin, Bah, Silva, Otamendi, Carreras, Kokcu, Barreiro, Florentino, Aursnes, Pavlidis, Di Maria.  

Barcelona  

Barcelona are second in the table, which is a pleasant surprise for Barca fans who haven't seen their team have much joy in this competition over the past few years.  

After defeat at Monaco in their first match, it's been five straight wins since and 21 goals scored, unsurprisingly the most of any side.   

Their forwards have certainly enjoyed themselves with Robert Lewandowski accounting for seven goals, Raphinha six and Fernan Torres two; only Lamine Yamal with just one has slightly lagged.  

Dani Olmo has finally started playing for Barcelona after a lengthy wait for administrative reasons but won't feature here after picking up a knock in their 1-1 draw at Getafe on Saturday.  

Possible XI: Pena, Cubarsi, Balde, Araujo, Kounde, Gavi, Pedri, de Jong, Yamal, Lewandowski, Raphinha.   

Benfica vs Barcelona Odds

The odds-compilers are showing Barcelona plenty of respect by making them 19/20, which has an implied probability of 51.3%; Benfica are 12/5 (29.4%) with the draw 3/1 (25%).  

Benfica's record in this fixture over the years is pretty good when you consider who their opponents are and their historic strength in European competitions. In total the Eagles have won two, drawn four and lost three against the Blaugrana. When they met in 2021, Benfica won 3-0 at home and drew 0-0 away, so they've certainly held their own in recent times, too.  

With that in mind, the 3/1 on the draw is by far the best of the three prices. Not just because it's also the biggest of the three but also because it would suit both teams and has occurred in two of the last four between these two, so it's a wager we like. 

Team with Most Booking points  

In one of the more bizarre prices of this midweek, we can back Benfica to get the most booking points at 21/20. In a way, it's quite an extraordinary price. Not because you get to double your money, but rather from a value point of view. It's 8/5 on Barca and 100/30 for a draw for most booking points, by the way.  

Consider this: Benfica have received 16 yellows so far, Barca have had just six, to go with a red in that game against Monaco.  And across Barcelona's six games so far in this competition, it was their opponents who got the most bookings points in five of them, the odd one out being when they had that man sent off against Monaco.  

It's too good a price to turn down.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...