Inter Milan vs Empoli Prediction: Nerazzurri to put visitors in their place

A fascinating Serie A title race is set to take another turn on Sunday night when Inter Milan welcome Empoli to San Siro (20:45 local, 19:45 GMT).

Simone Inzaghi’s Inter started the weekend three points adrift of leaders Napoli, who travelled to third-placed Atalanta on Saturday. My Inter Milan vs Empoli predictions, as well as a full preview and match odds, are below.

Team News

Hakan Calhanoglu (calf) and Henrikh Mkhitaryan (adductor) remain Inter’s two key absentees, with both having seen their game-time limited so far in 2025.

Elsewhere, Yann Bisseck (muscle), Joaquin Correa (calf) and Raffaele Di Gennaro (hand) are also ruled out as the Nerazzurri’s depth of squad is tested.

For the second game running Piotr Zielinski, Nicolo Barella and Kristjan Asllani were the starting trio in midfield for the 2-2 draw with Bologna on Wednesday, but Inzaghi may look to make changes in light of the dropped points and the nature of this three-game week.

There will be no Emmanuel Ekong for the travelling Azzurri, with the Sweden youth international suspended.

He is added to a lengthy missing list which has recently seen Tino Anjorin join Ola Solbakken (shoulder operation), Pietro Pellegri (knee), Tyronne Ebuehi, Saba Sazonov and Nicolas Haas (all ACL) in the treatment room. The English attacker has picked up a muscle problem.

Inter Milan vs Empoli Odds

Inter actually have a better away record (W7, D2, L0) than they do on home soil (W6, D3, L1), but are still obvious odds-on favourites for this clash.

The Biscione are 1/5 to see off Empoli for a second time this season, having punished the 10-man Tuscans in October. That 3-0 away win included a trio of second-half goals, and Inter are 11/4 to turn a half-time tie into a victory on Sunday at an implied probability of 26.7%.

The visitors are 11/1 to come away with a shock win, despite having a decent defensive record. Nobody south of seventh-placed Milan has conceded fewer than Empoli’s 25 goals in 20 matches.

That said, Inter are the league’s top scorers, having netted more goals (48) than Empoli have scored and conceded combined (44). That makes the 5/1 for a draw understandable, while the 9/10 for Inter to be the only team to score looks all the tastier.

Only Inter to score @ 9/10

Look at Empoli’s attacking record. They have scored an average of less than one goal per game. Now take a glance at Inter’s defensive return of 17 conceded in 19, and 10 clean sheets along the way.

In fact, prior to Wednesday’s draw with Bologna, the Nerazzurri had scored 12 and conceded none in four straight league victories.

Put all that together, and I just can’t see them being breached by Empoli on Sunday. Yann Sommer and his back line have a point to prove, and I just don’t see the firepower in that visiting forward department. There’s also the string of injuries which are holding the Azzurri back.

At 9/10, Betfred are implying a 52.6% chance of Inter winning to nil. But that underestimates Inter’s ability to get such a job done since they have record 16 victories without conceding in 28 matches across all competitions in 2024-25. That’s a 57.1% rate.

Football Odds

Inter win and over 3.5 total goals @ 13/8

I’ve got a feeling that Inter could make hay at San Siro on Sunday. Sure, Empoli have a decent return at the back, but their injury issues are getting worse rather than better and Inter owe somebody a pasting after their Supercoppa collapse against AC Milan and then the failure to see off Bologna.

They’ve already turned in some scintillating wins over Atalanta (4-0), Red Star Belgrade (4-0) and Lazio (6-0) this term, and this could be another of those nights. They’ve also racked up a few wins which have seen their opponents find the net along the way, so the 3.5 or more goals portion of this bet allows for the odd lapse should it happen.

The league’s top scorers, with goals coming from every department, Inter are as likely as any team in Europe to hoist this bet over the line.

With Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez firing up top and wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Di Marco combining for nine goals (Dumfries six, Di Marco three), it’s clear that Empoli will have a mountain of questions to answer over the 90 minutes.

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